Uphill Battle to Amend the Constitution.
Zambian Parliament: UPND Faces Uphill Battle to Pass Constitutional Amendment
Current Parliamentary Composition
As of 2025, Zambia’s National Assembly comprises 167 seats, with the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) holding 93 seats . The main opposition, the Patriotic Front (PF), has 55 seats, while independent members and smaller parties hold 14 seats, and 1 seat remains vacant .
Constitutional Amendment Requirements
To pass a constitutional amendment, Zambia’s constitution mandates a two-thirds majority (111 votes) in the National Assembly . The UPND’s current 93 seats mean they require an additional 18 votes to secure passage.
Challenges for the UPND
1. Opposition Resistance:
The PF has historically opposed amendments perceived as consolidating executive power, as seen in their rejection of the 2020 “Bill 10,” which failed with only 105 votes .
2. Independent MPs:
While 12 independents could theoretically bridge the gap, past trends show they rarely align uniformly with the ruling party .
3. Floor-Crossing
Controversies: Recent attempts to declare PF seats vacant over alleged “crossing the floor” were dismissed by the Speaker, who ruled such decisions fall under judicial—not parliamentary—authority .
Potential Outcomes
– Failure: Without securing 18 extra votes, the bill will likely fail, mirroring the PF’s 2020 defeat.
Negotiations: The UPND could lobby independents or smaller parties, but polarization makes this difficult .
-Political Fallout: A failed amendment may fuel accusations of UPND overreach, while success could trigger protests .
Recent Developments
The UPND gained the Pambashe seat in a February 2025 by-election, slightly improving their numbers .
The Lumezi Constituency by-election (scheduled for June 2025) following Munir Zulu’s conviction could further shift dynamics .
Conclusion
Given the UPND’s slim margin and opposition cohesion, the amendment’s passage appears unlikely unless unprecedented cross-party support emerges. Historical precedent and current tensions suggest a protracted legislative battle ahead.
By Moshed Israel.
There are PF MPs who see great sense in the suggested amendments. They won’t reveal themselves, and there is no obligation on their part to disclose their opinion.
Best to stop this mindless speculation, this blind guesswork. The issues in question go beyond partisan loyalty. The direction the final vote turns out will show how national interest outweighs partisan loyalty amonst our members of parliament.
Spot on!
The importance of the amendment of this constitution is the one that can make it pass.The reasons advanced for amendment are tangible.The ratios suggested by the author and assumptions may not matter a lot but the need to do that is the driver of the results.The people of Zambia have shown that they need the amendment to happen.The MPs are sent by the people to Parliament.They must consider what people are saying.They did not go to Parliament to serve their wishes no.It is therefore comparative for the MPs to consult and do what the people are telling them.The up hill battle assumption is neither here nor there.
The writer has forgotten that most of the pf mps and independent mps are siding with the government, if Parliament decided to vote today this bill can go through without doubt