🇿🇲 EXPLAINER | Zambia’s 2026 Budget: Big Numbers, Big Questions
Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane tabled a K253.1 billion national budget for 2026, equal to 27.4 percent of GDP. It is the largest in Zambia’s history and the most domestically mobilized: K206.5 billion will come from tax revenue, with K12.1 billion from grants and K34.5 billion from borrowing. For the first time, Zambia is funding four-fifths of its spending from within. But behind the headline is a story of constraints.
What Domestic Mobilization Means
Domestic resource mobilization refers to how much of the budget government raises from taxes and local non-tax revenues rather than borrowing or aid. In Zambia’s case, 82 percent of the 2026 budget will be financed by domestic revenue. This is a historic level. It means less dependence on donors and external creditors, and more sovereignty in setting national priorities. But it also means the burden of taxation falls squarely on citizens and businesses. Every kwacha collected through VAT, PAYE, mining royalties, and corporate tax is what will drive schools, hospitals, and roads.
Why It Matters
High domestic mobilization is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it signals fiscal maturity. Countries that raise their own revenue are less vulnerable to donor conditions and foreign shocks. On the other hand, in a fragile economy, heavy domestic taxation risks choking consumption and squeezing small businesses. The IMF has praised Zambia for widening its tax net, but many traders in markets or SMEs feel they are being taxed into the ground while service delivery remains patchy.
Debt Still Heavy
Debt service is the single largest item, consuming K73.6 billion. K52 billion goes to domestic repayments and K21.7 billion to external creditors. That is more than one third of the budget. Even after restructuring 94 percent of external debt, costly Treasury bills and bonds issued between 2015 and 2021 now falling due are leaving little room for fresh investment. This is the fiscal iron wall government cannot ignore
Constituency Development Fund (CDF)
The CDF has been raised from K36.1 million to K40 million per constituency, bringing the total envelope to K6.2 billion. Since 2022, the fund has delivered 2,800 classrooms and 131 health posts. But the allocation formula remains flat. Lusaka Central, with 150,000 voters, still receives the same as remote areas with 30,000. Without reform to factor population and poverty, the increase risks deepening inequality rather than fixing it.
Energy: The Elephant in the Room
A new K500 million Electricity Fund has been introduced, including the Zambia–Tanzania interconnector and a five megawatt thermal plant in Lusaka. But the gap is vast. Drought cut hydro output by 40 percent, creating a shortfall of nearly 1,000 megawatts. Emergency imports are draining the treasury while exports continue under regional contracts. This contradiction fuels public anger. The fix is transparency. Publish quarterly data on imports, exports, and net balances. Without that, the public will see policy as spin, not substance.
Social Protection
Social protection has been allocated K15.7 billion, or 6.2 percent of the budget. Of this, K7.65 billion goes to the Social Cash Transfer, K1.03 billion to Cash-for-Work, and K1.5 billion to the Food Security Pack. Transfers remain unchanged at K800 per household and K1,200 for households with disabilities. The challenge is timeliness. If payments are delayed, the cushion collapses. Cash-for-Work in particular must evolve into a skills and employment ladder, not just temporary relief.
Education and Health
Education continues to dominate. Free education now covers 2.3 million children. Recruitment of 3,500 teachers and bursaries for 6,000 students is planned for 2026. Since 2022, over 28,000 students have benefited. But quality will depend on matching classrooms with teachers and timely funding. Health receives K6.4 billion for medicines and K953 million for equipment, alongside five new hospitals. After shortages in 2024 and 2025, this allocation responds to pressure, but the real test is whether drugs are consistently available on pharmacy shelves.
Agriculture Push
Agriculture has been given K15.5 billion, with K9.15 billion for the Farmer Input Support Programme, now expanded to all 116 districts. K2.1 billion is set aside for Strategic Food Reserves. Irrigation, veterinary services, and new drought-resistant seed projects are on the table. The ambition is bold: 10 million tonnes of maize, and one million tonnes each of wheat and soya by 2031. If logistics and trade policy lag, surplus risks turning into waste.
Elections and Governance
The 2026 general elections are budgeted at K1.19 billion. Unless ring-fenced, this will crowd out health and education spending. On governance, amendments to the Anti-Corruption Act and a new Medium-Term Revenue Strategy have been promised. These are important, but credibility will depend on whether political will holds during the campaign season.
The Bottom Line
This is Zambia’s biggest and most domestically financed budget yet. It signals fiscal strength but also exposes the risk of over-taxing a fragile economy. The weight of debt, the fragility of energy, and the rising cost of an election year leave little room for error. For ordinary citizens, the question is simple: will 2026 bring more power in their homes, more food on their tables, and more medicine in their clinics?
📩 Readers are invited to share their thoughts with us at editor.peoplesbrief@gmail.com
1. Transparence is the Key in the Implementation of this Budget…
2. Citizens need to know why they are paying Taxes….
3. The Tax Collection by ZRA must be Enhanced and Citizens need to Help by Obtaining Smart Invoices from Traders Especially these Foreign now Zambian Businessmen…
A lot of tax is evaded by these traders…
I totally agree ,there is a lot of tax evasions by foreign registered entities. ZRA ili ndwi
“But the allocation formula remains flat. Lusaka Central, with 150,000 voters, still receives the same as remote areas with 30,000. Without reform to factor population and poverty, the increase risks deepening inequality rather than fixing it.”
We know how to fix this but politics have gotten the better of us. You can imagine how small constituencies are going to improve their livelihood while Lusaka and Copperbelt constituencies lag behind.
It’s typically this kind of thinking, that has rendered our Rural populace Wallowing in never ending grinding poverty,
,, Surely if Lusaka Central, with it’s 150,000, plus Voters, feel so strongly
This is then , the time to begin to question, The LUSAKA CITY COUNCIL,on their Budget expenditure, that arises from, Property and Land Rates, and Other Revenue resources they Collect
One would have expected,
Lusaka Central, to significantly to Contribute a Larger portion
Owing to it’s affluent Poshy Neighbourhoods, of very highly rated Properties.
So, let’s ask tough questions,
How much does the Council plow back into Lusaka Central?
From it’s annual Collection of K1 billion plus
Besides, most of urban development projects are equally supported & financed by the Central Government.
Courtesy of the Ministry of local government &: ministry of infrastructure
So for our Rural community population this boost is definitely more needed and important, to have some kind of resemblance, to really much needed upliftiment of their standard of Living
They must feel part of being ZAMBIANS
In the sharing of our National Cake
After All , rural Voters, have proved over the years as the True Kingmakers
When they say enough is enough,
They vote in mass, to Elect or Remove a Government,
So they deserve, a hearing, respect and development too
Lusaka Central is an urban constituency and already well developed and getting overcrowded. More money is needed in rural constituencies to have them developed too and people will have a reason not to run away from there when posted to these areas. It appears no one wants to leave in rural areas. So government should put more money there to bring these areas to standard like urban areas. This shows how skewed development was in the past. People in rural areas are Zambians too and deserve a fair share of the national cake. So Katana, if Lusaka without resources you find in places like copperbelt was not developed, would you even have known the place. What the government allocates to these rural constituencies is just a drop in the ocean. Go for delimitation that will facilitate their development.