*Zambia´s Weakest Link in International Relations Exposed*
…as debt-relief standoff is escalated by the West and China
2nd February 2023
Amb. Anthony Mukwita
The old saying goes that the chain is often just as strong as its weakest link in most given socio-economic and political discourses.
This adage seems to have come to life in the case of the elusive debt relief package Zambia expects from its bilateral and multilateral lenders after signing a bail-out package from the IMF last September.
There was thunderous applause from the officialdom; thumbs up, champagne bottles popped open after the ruling party, UPND, inked the bail-out package that would ostensibly give Zambia a US$1,3billion loan facility that would lead to a path of economic stability hopefully.
Months later, the ululations have subsided, the lights are out, and the music has stopped, as the bailout package remains elusive due to a combination of factors.
The major factor many experts have fingered is the reluctance of Zambia´s leadership to engage China at the highest level between President Hichilema and counterpart H.E Xi Jinping and thrush out the US$6 billion infrastructure debt Zambia owes the dragon.
The second has been Uncle Sam´s (US) apparent ´condescending´ and ´patronising´ attitude and public accusation, of another sovereign state in the name of China saying “they were placing ´barriers´ or ´monkey-wrenching´ the whole debt restructuring exercise for Zambia, by not ´cooperating´, when in fact, this is not the case according to official data.
The truth, however, is that China is an active member of the creditors group that want to see Zambia´s debt restructured so that the southern African nation can get head-room and use some of the money for social responsibility and delivery instead of the bulk going to debt servicing.
Fast forward, the proverbial manure hit the fan when China, known in international diplomacy circles for quiet diplomacy finally blew a fuse and called the United States, IMF and World Bank´s bluff.
“Give debt relief to Zambia too and stop heaping the blame on China,” roared the dragon that is normally a silent observer, an indication that China has had enough in the raging geopolitical war.
The terse response from Beijing was voiced by the most senior spokeswoman of the People´s Republic of China in the Foreign Office Ms Mao Ning, sounding an ominous alarm that the dragon is no longer going to turn the other cheek as Uncle Sam takes cheap shots at it.
She said, at between 24% and 46 %, multi-lateral institutions and private sector such as Eurobond holders hold more of Zambia´s debt as compared to China.
“The key to easing Zambia´s foreign debt (US$15billion) burden therefore lies in the participation of multilateral institutions and commercial creditors in debt relief efforts,” Ms Mao said in a statement.
Prior to that the normally quite embassy of China in Zambia established at independence 58 years ago also issued a rare statement where they called on America to take care of its own debt than muddy waters with Zambia-China debt and jeopardise the two countries good long standing diplomatic relations.
“The biggest contribution that the US can make to the debt issue outside the country is cope with its own debt problem and stop sabotaging other sovereign countries active efforts to solve rheir debt issues,” Beijing said from its Lusaka base.
This was the first time China was throwing the gauntlet at America on foreign soil in this ever-sensitive growing geopolitical war that has sucked in the dirt poor southern African country Zambia whose majority of people need K8000 to survive on basic needs for a family of eight.
While the United States stands on the hill and shout for prudent debt management, official records show, out of a cap of a whooping US$31.4 trillion it (US) can borrow, it has reached is LIMIT.
Before the Chinese foreign affairs spokeswoman and the embassy in Zambia spoke out, the Ambassador China in Washington DC told Reuters that contrary to popular western media narratives, “our debt to Africa is not predatory, it’s not… Its beneficial.”
He added that the bulk of Africa´s debt is actually to the west.
But looking at the whole issue with a thicker lense, analysts see the debt issue as a mere side show because the real issue in the view of this author for instance is, “a growing war between the United States and China as the Thucydides trap escalates.”
Unfortunately for Zambia, the perceived lack of stamina to boldly engage the largest creditor at China at the preference of America is likely to cost the southern African nation, if China refuses to corporate and be dictated to by the West.
The negative impact of the war between China and the United States with Zambia in the middle is likely to be:
• Debt repayment default
• Delayed IMF bailout package
• Continued rise in cost of living for ordinary Zambians.
• A weak local currency and a damaged economy
• And a blurred international or foreign relations policy
The lessons from all these proxy, international relations war in geopolitical set up are many but the main one is that Zambia must industrialise, start producing, adding value and grow its own economy to stop playing second fiddle to the giants US and China.
Only Zambia can save Zambia, China and US are mere partners in growth but are not central to our growth, neither is the IMF and World Bank.
Today, however, like I said in a January interview on Diamond TV live, President Hichilema must make that long over-due call to President Xi and we shall live happily ever after.
My forthcoming book, hot off the press, based on the rise of China in Africa, Zambia´s, due out this month will elucidate more on this fast-growing discourse of China and the US with Zambia in the middle. Don’t miss it on Amazon.
Amb. AM. 02.02.23