Zimbabwe’s ZANUPF has elevated sanctioned Zimbabwean businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei to its Central Committee, positioning him as a frontrunner to succeed President Emmerson Mnangagwa. This move sidelines Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, who faces a critical juncture in his political career.
Since the removal of the running mate clause, which allowed Mnangagwa to avoid designating a successor, Chiwenga’s path to power has been fraught. Mnangagwa’s strategic maneuvering has politically encircled Chiwenga, but the general is not out of the race unless he chooses not to fight. His fate hinges on military support. Allegations swirl that key military figures, including the wife of the 2017 coup’s Presidential Guard commander, back Tagwirei, whose vast wealth is reportedly smoothing his ascent.
Why Tagwirei?
Mnangagwa seeks to secure his and his family’s protection from prosecution, fearing Chiwenga’s potential retribution. Tagwirei is seen as a shield, safeguarding Mnangagwa’s allies—such as George Guvamatanga, Ziyambi Ziyambi, Virginia Mabhiza, and Vimbai Nyemba—and their criminal networks.
Chiwenga’s Challenges
Chiwenga’s team remains elusive, possibly by design or due to disorganization, leaving diplomats unclear on his stance. Meanwhile, Mnangagwa has fortified regional alliances through envoys like Wicknell Chivayo, leveraging business deals to cement support. This makes a coup unlikely, as Mnangagwa has learned from Mugabe’s vulnerabilities during the 2017 ouster.
A Narrow Path Forward
Chiwenga enjoys public support, not for his leadership, but due to widespread disdain for Mnangagwa amid Zimbabwe’s economic woes. Without mobilizing ZANUPF’s grassroots to counter Mnangagwa’s machine, Chiwenga’s only viable option may be a military coup, potentially emulating Sahel-style takeovers that prioritize domestic control over international approval. If he hesitates, Mnangagwa’s camp may move to eliminate him entirely, which could finally provoke a decisive response.
From the look of things, if nothing happens from Chiwenga’s camp, Tagwirei might just be the next President of Zimbabwe.