2026 Provincial Outlook – Preliminary Analysis Presidential and General Elections

AN ANALYSIS BY NKONKOMALIMBA KAPUMPE

2026 Provincial Outlook – Preliminary Analysis Presidential and General Elections

Lusaka Province

Rural constituencies are likely to lean UPND, while urban centers will be contested. Projected split: UPND 40% | Opposition 60%. Urban voter dissatisfaction in Lusaka City and surrounding districts is the main driver.

Copperbelt Province
Similar to Lusaka. UPND holds a base in rural areas but opposition momentum is stronger. Projected: UPND 45% | Opposition 55%. Labor issues and cost of living will be decisive here.

Eastern Province
UPND made significant gains last cycle, near 49% (subject to correction but 40 something). This time, continued outreach and targeted defections suggest they could cross 55%, leaving opposition at 45%. The political groundwork in the province has been consistent, which explains the recent defections from PF

Southern Province

UPND stronghold. No competitive shift expected. Projected: UPND 80% | Opposition 20%. Opposition presence remains minimal.

Western Province
Another UPND-leaning province. With opposition structures weak and most independents aligning with HH, expect – 80% for UPND. The opposition vote will be fragmented among independents.

North-Western Province
UPND likely to secure 65%, with opposition at 35%. The opposition share is mainly due to Copperbelt spillover influence in Solwezi and surrounding mining towns.

Northern Province
This looks favorable to the opposition/independents. Projected: Opposition 55% | UPND 45%. UPND has struggled to address key local grievances here, which could cost them.

Luapula Province
Likely to mirror Northern Province. Voter behavior is volatile and locally driven. If Mundubile consolidates support, expect 65% for opposition/independents, 35% for HH/UPND. High turnout at adoptions doesn’t necessarily translate to votes here. Very trick people , next day the same turn up in numbers joined the opposition.

Muchinga Province
A mix of Northern and Eastern influences makes this a swing province. Likely 50:50 split. Campaign mobilization and candidate quality will decide it.

Central Province
Predominantly rural and historically responsive to UPND. Projected: UPND 60% | Opposition 40%. Opposition may only be competitive in Kabwe and other urban centers.

UPND’s strength remains in Southern, Western, and rural Lusaka/Central. The Copperbelt, Lusaka urban, Northern, and Luapula will be the main battlegrounds. Muchinga and Eastern could swing based on last-mile campaigning and defection dynamics.

Nkonkomalimba Kapumpe

NB: We will be reviewing every after three weeks.