The United Party for National Development (UPND) has been in existence since December 1998 when it was founded by the late Anderson Kambela Mazoka. In less than three years, the party went on to contest the general elections of 2001 in which its performance was extremely impressive for a newly formed opposition political party. There are many schools of thought with regards to the outcome of the disputed general elections of 2001. However, I will not dwell much on this topic because after many years in court during the election petition, the Supreme Court of Zambia ruled in favour of the then ruling party the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD). Despite the ruling by the courts, one thing which is clear, based on the performance of the UPND at the time, is simply that Anderson Mazoka was both an effective mobiliser and an organiser. The distinction between the two must be properly understood for our people to know the greatness of the late Mazoka, and how he was able to penetrate the political landscape in a short space of time as an opposition leader.
In clear terms, a mobiliser is someone who is only concerned with issues, while an organiser is someone who is preoccupied with primarily challenging or upsetting the system. Therefore, a mobiliser can bring people together around the high cost of living, issues of corruption or high mealie-meal prices, and even entice those people to rally in protest for any cause. Unfortunately, this act in itself of rounding up people only constitutes a mobilised effort, which is not permanent but temporary by nature. On the other hand, an organiser is someone who has organisational intelligence and skills, someone well positioned to bring down the system. Also, has to be someone who is capable of establishing the much-needed structures of a given organisation or political party across the entire country. An organiser should be able of commanding consistent respect and following within an institution or political party because of their leadership skills. To be an organiser, one must be a mobiliser first; but you can be a mobiliser without being an organiser. And certainly, Mazoka’s leadership demonstrates that the man was both a political mobiliser and organiser.
Since the demise of Anderson Mazoka in 2006, the party has been led by none other than President Hakainde Hichilema (HH). Therefore, from 1998 to 2021 the UPND has officially been in the opposition for 23 years, and the question that begs an answer on the minds of many Zambians is as follows; will the UPND be in perennial opposition beyond August 12, 2021? In an attempt to answer this question, we have to look at the performance of this largest opposition political party in the recent past. There are only two possible outcomes in any election for all participants.
However, with regards to this year’s general election, there is a strong indication that the UPND can carry the day and win the elections without any difficulties. For example, in 2016, the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) won the two-horse race election between them and the UPND with only a margin of 100,000 votes which was less than 1 per cent of the total votes. It is, therefore, possible for the UPND to close up this gap in this election through the following means: a seriously well-organised grassroot structures, a relevant message to resonate with the people and finally orchestrated strategic voter education programme throughout the country.
Also, the UPND has many other factors working in their favour, including but not limited to the struggling economy, the high levels of corruption within the PF government, and gross elements of incompetence and misconducts by most of the government officials. It is our prediction that the UPND will win Western Province, North Western Province, Southern Province, and possibly Central Province by a landslide. And of course, the PF will win in Muchinga Province, Luapula Province, Northern Province and Eastern Province thereby creating a situation where Copperbelt Province and Lusaka Province will be the battleground for the soul of this nation. The truth is that when the fundamentals of the economy are not aligned as they should, it is the people in urban areas like Lusaka and the Copperblet who feel the unbearable effects of an economy in free fall. Hence, this can be a huge determining factor concerning the outcome of the elections on August 12, 2021.
The other possible outcome in this year’s election would be that the UPND loses the election, thereby providing an affirmative answer to the question of whether the UPND will be in perennial oppositions beyond August 2021. Let us consider the factors at play which may bring about such a disturbing reality for the opposition UPND if they do not stay awake throughout this entire process. First of all, the new voter registration as computed by the Electoral Commission of Zambia is extremely concerning. We have observed that the numbers of registered votes in Western and Southern provinces have significantly diminished in comparison to the older voter register. At the same time, the numbers of voters registered on this new roll has gone up quite substantively in areas where the ruling party seems to have an upper hand. The implication of this new reality is that you will have more votes cast in the so-called PF strongholds as opposed to UPND strongholds. If this be the case, then one would expect to see an election outcome that would lean towards the PF government.
Another factor, which could negatively affect the UPND is the lack of having strong and committed members on the ground in Copperbelt and Lusaka who can win parliamentary seats for the party. It is not enough to just focus on getting president HH to State House, but rather the party needs to win more seats in Parliament from the urban cities. As things stand right now, the UPND does not even have one member of parliament from the Copperbelt except what we call Copperbelt rural like Lufuwayama. The same thing applies to Lusaka, the largest opposition party does not have a member of parliament from the urban areas of Lusaka except for Kafue which is Lusaka rural. Therefore, it is crucial to make sure that the UPND wins as many seats as possible for members of parliament in Lusaka and Copperbelt if they are to secure a landslide victory on August 12, 2021. Otherwise, the failure to take up parliamentary seats in these two critical provinces will make it even harder for president HH to get to plot one. Lastly, the other recipe for the UPND to lose this election is the temptation of feeling or thinking that “we have already won this election” even before polling day. This temptation must be avoided at all costs because it creates the feeling of complacency among the party members which makes them not to work as hard as they should because of these misguided thoughts.
To be an opposition leader and run a vibrant opposition political party in Africa, especially in Zambia is not an easy thing. We have witnessed so many candidates and opposition political parties across the continent become perennial due to the unfair advantage created by their opponents in power. For example, the likes of Raila Odinga in Kenya, who has been a perennial candidate for decades. Also, the MDC party of the late Morgan Tsvangirai, which is now led by Nelson Chamisa in Zimbabwe, the UDC of Duma Boko in Botswana, and the opposition Renamo of Mozambique, are just a few of the many political parties which have achieved the status of being perennial opposition parties. However, the UPND has been a credible Zambian opposition party in the face of so many challenges and therefore, this election offers them a unique opportunity to be victorious by any means or else they risk being a perennial opposition party.
Email; aaronngambi@yahoo.com