By Godfrey Chitalu
The last time I did a successful full election prediction was in 2016. It was a rare empirical success that relied on case-specific evidence from a mini poll, parallel tabulations, media gleanings, and intelligence data from multiple constituencies.
This time around, I do not want to toy with the ideas, as I have a gut feeling that pollsters could be in for a rude shock. This year’s election is not a walk in the park.
In my predictions, which were published on social media months before the actual elections, I gave Edgar Lungu 50.3%, HH 48% and scored perfectly for UPND and PF parliamentarians. I was beaten by one FDD win and failed on Independent MPs. Their 14 tidal waves led by Wusakile Member of Parliament Honorable Pavyuma Kalobo, floored me squarely.
This year’s elections are going to the wire. Forget about our regular pollsters. Many pre-election polls, despite employing good methodologies and gathering empirical evidence, miss that human touch. A human being is highly unpredictable. Zambians are no exception.
My general prediction for the 2021 elections is threefold; the resurgence of the Independents, the inability to reach the 50+1 threshold, and an almost net-zero effect for the two largest political parties.
The latter will be resolved by new strategies, alliances, and perhaps negotiations. What happens in the next phase is not my cup of tea. We can however learn lessons from Zimbabwe.
Independent candidates will definitely have a field day. Eastern and Copperbelt provinces have close to 80 candidates vying to be elected as Independent MPs.
Countrywide, we might just have a good number going to Manda hill. Giving Petauke central as a one-off example, Emmanuel J. Banda is surely set to wrestle power from Dora Siliya, a colossus of the ruling party.
Models show that our new parliament will have up to 20 Independent MPs. Other positions will follow a similar trend for Independents. It is projected at slightly more than a tithe of the total elective positions; mayoral, council chairpersons, and councilors. The presidential race is also a no-brainer.
The opposition is marshaled by UPND and the larger-than-life HH. Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on how your bread is buttered, he is riding on a wave of people’s dissatisfaction with the economy.
The ruling class, it is claimed is basking in a crown of laurels, with “we have made it in life” cadre-high-handedness. This will help Hakainde garner at least a 3.5% increase over his last showing against Edgar Lungu.
The Patriotic Front has tried albeit unsuccessfully to ride the storm of economic woes by fronting massive infrastructure development. Coupled with masterly crafted interventions like debt swap, their marginal gain should have been monumental.
Perceptions and reality on the ground however show that the Achilles heel for candidate Lungu is the high cost of living. This imperious rise and sort of accelerated fall, even at its worst will account for a marginal loss of about 4,5% from his last posting.
The rest of the pack led by Dr. Fred Mmembe of the Socialist party are the kingmakers. It doesn’t matter whether they get a combined 3% or less because it will prevent the two neck and neck contenders from running with the prize. It is expected that the 14 “presidents” will only manage a combined tally of between 3% and 4%.
My parliamentary prediction is that PF will have the majority MPs of two and a half trays, followed by UPND a three score, Independents will hover around two units of MPs while other parties combined will unite in a unit of parliamentarians.
As usual, these are just ruminations. Your vote might just change my predictions. I love you all, allow me to Bally Adada my way out!
The author is a social commentator who writes for pleasure.
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