Democracy Denied: Why Blocking Former President Dr. Edgar Chagwa Lungu Won’t Secure UPND’s 2026 Victory
By Thandiwe Ketis Ngoma
The decision by the United Party for National Development (UPND) to block former President Dr. Edgar Chagwa Lungu from contesting the 2026 elections is not only a blatant assault on democracy but also a strategic blunder that underscores the ruling party’s growing insecurities. While the UPND may view this as a calculated maneuver to sideline their strongest opponent, it reveals their inability to govern effectively or win public trust through performance.
Zambians are not easily swayed by such political tactics. Blocking one individual will not erase the frustrations of millions of citizens grappling with rising poverty, unemployment, and the government’s glaring failure to fulfill its promises. If anything, this act of desperation will galvanize the opposition, amplify discontent, and embolden the electorate to demand change at the ballot box.
Dr. Lungu’s Loyal Supporters: A Political Powerhouse
1. The Forgotten Majority: A Rising Force
Dr. Lungu’s political base is not just a fragment of society—it represents the heart of Zambia’s marginalized majority. These are the rural farmers, urban laborers, unemployed youth, and struggling small business owners who feel abandoned under UPND rule. For them, Dr. Lungu was a leader who understood their challenges, listened to their concerns, and worked to address their needs.
The UPND’s focus on barring Dr. Lungu does nothing to alleviate the pressing issues faced by these citizens:
Soaring Costs of Living: Basic goods like mealie meal, fuel, and utilities have become unaffordable, eroding the quality of life for ordinary Zambians.
Widening Economic Inequality: UPND’s policies have largely benefited the elite, leaving rural and urban poor communities further disenfranchised.
Unfulfilled Promises: Pledges to uplift rural communities through investments in agriculture, education, and infrastructure remain unfulfilled, deepening resentment toward the government.
These frustrations will not disappear with Dr. Lungu’s exclusion. Instead, they will amplify the resolve of millions to reject the UPND’s leadership.
2. A Grassroots Movement Too Resilient to Undermine
The Patriotic Front (PF) remains a formidable political force, particularly in regions where the UPND has failed to deliver tangible results. From the Copperbelt to Northern Province, Dr. Lungu’s supporters remain fiercely loyal, drawing strength from the infrastructure development and social empowerment programs that defined his presidency.
Infrastructure Legacy: Roads, schools, and hospitals built under Dr. Lungu’s leadership are a testament to his commitment to national development.
Empowerment Programs: His policies directly benefited women, youth, and vulnerable groups, earning him enduring support across diverse demographics.
If the UPND thinks that barring Dr. Lungu weakens this base, they are grossly mistaken. His exclusion is likely to serve as a rallying cry for his supporters, mobilizing them around a shared mission: to hold the UPND accountable and demand a government that delivers for all Zambians.
Democracy Is About the People, Not Political Games
1. The People Will Decide
Democracy is not about eliminating competition to secure an easy victory; it is about presenting solutions that resonate with the electorate. By attempting to block Dr. Lungu, the UPND is underestimating the intelligence and determination of the Zambian people. Elections are not won in courtrooms or backdoor political deals—they are won at the ballot box, where citizens express their will.
Rising Discontent: The hardships caused by soaring living costs, stagnant job creation, and declining public services will overshadow any political maneuvering.
Demand for Accountability: Zambians are frustrated with the government’s failure to deliver on its promises and will use their votes to express their dissatisfaction.
2. A Gamble That Could Backfire
The UPND’s decision to block Dr. Lungu is a dangerous gamble that risks alienating not only his supporters but also moderate voters who value fairness, competition, and democracy. This strategy could:
Unite Opposition Forces: Dr. Lungu’s exclusion could rally various opposition factions to form a united front against the UPND.
Increase Voter Turnout: A sense of injustice could mobilize record numbers of disillusioned citizens to vote against a government perceived as undemocratic.
Rather than neutralizing a rival, this move could ignite a backlash of unprecedented proportions, solidifying the perception of the UPND as a regime afraid to face accountability.
UPND’s Record: A Flawed Foundation for Re-Election
If the UPND’s strategy for 2026 hinges on eliminating opposition rather than delivering results, it only highlights their weaknesses. Elections are won through performance, and on this front, the UPND has failed to inspire confidence:
Unrelenting Poverty: Despite lofty promises of economic reform, poverty levels remain alarmingly high, particularly in rural areas.
Youth Unemployment Crisis: The government has failed to create meaningful job opportunities, leaving millions of young Zambians disillusioned.
Economic Mismanagement: Ambitions to stabilize the economy and attract investment have fallen short, compounding public frustration.
These failures cannot be obscured by political tactics. The Zambian electorate is acutely aware of the government’s shortcomings and will demand accountability through the ballot box.
The Resilience of Dr. Lungu’s Supporters
Dr. Lungu’s exclusion from the race will not diminish the resolve of his supporters. If anything, it strengthens their determination to effect change.
1. Mobilization Like Never Before
The exclusion of Dr. Lungu could serve as a catalyst for unprecedented mobilization. His supporters, united by their shared frustrations with the UPND, will organize themselves to ensure their voices are heard loud and clear in 2026.
2. Strategic Opposition Voting
Dr. Lungu’s absence does not signal defeat for the opposition. His supporters are likely to consolidate their votes behind alternative PF candidates or other opposition leaders, ensuring that the UPND faces a formidable challenge.
Conclusion: Deliver, Don’t Suppress
The UPND’s strategy to block Dr. Edgar Lungu from contesting the 2026 elections is not only undemocratic but also counterproductive. In a democracy, victory is earned through governance, accountability, and a commitment to improving the lives of citizens—not by sidelining opponents.
The real battle for 2026 will be fought on the issues that matter most to Zambians: rising living costs, unemployment, poverty, and unfulfilled promises. Blocking Dr. Lungu will not shield the UPND from the wrath of an electorate demanding change. Instead, it risks galvanizing opposition forces, alienating voters, and amplifying discontent.
The UPND must focus on delivering results that improve the lives of ordinary citizens. Only through good governance, not suppression, can they hope to secure a legitimate and lasting mandate.
Democracy is about the people, and in 2026, their voices will resonate louder than ever.