🇿🇲 ANALYSIS | EMV Poll Numbers Reveal Bigger Reality: PF Vote Still the Largest Opposition Bloc
The EMV opinion poll results have generated debate across Zambia’s political space, but the deeper significance lies not only in who won each category. The numbers also reveal something critical about the structure of the opposition vote, particularly the enduring influence of the Patriotic Front’s electoral base.
The 2021 general election offers the most useful starting point. In that election, the Patriotic Front secured roughly 1.8 million votes despite losing power. This vote did not disappear. It remains the largest consolidated opposition voting bloc in the country today. What the EMV poll appears to show is how that base is now fragmented across several PF-linked political figures.
Look closely at the candidates dominating the poll categories.
In the Facebook poll, President Hakainde Hichilema emerged first with 51.2 percent, followed by Brian Mundubile with 27.17 percent, Makebi Zulu with 17.09 percent, and Harry Kalaba with 4.48 percent. Even in a PF-leaning digital environment, the incumbent still crosses the 50 percent mark. This is politically notable.
But the deeper story lies behind the opposition numbers.
Mundubile, Zulu and Kalaba collectively represent three separate fragments of the PF political ecosystem. Mundubile leads the Tonse Alliance but remains historically rooted in the PF leadership structure. Kalaba served as a senior PF cabinet minister before forming Citizens First. Makebi Zulu is campaigning directly within PF circles. None of these figures are ideological outsiders to the PF political tradition.
The Live Phone Call poll reinforces this fragmentation.
Harry Kalaba leads with 44.2 percent, followed closely by Makebi Zulu with 40.1 percent, while Mundubile falls to 5.8 percent. President Hichilema receives 4.4 percent, and Socialist Party leader Fred M’membe records 5.5 percent. Here the PF-derived vote is clearly visible: Kalaba and Zulu together command over 84 percent of the call-in audience.
The Online Voting category produces yet another PF-aligned winner.
Makebi Zulu dominates with 43.5 percent, followed by Kalaba with 24.4 percent, Mundubile with 14.8 percent, President Hichilema with 11.3 percent, and Fred M’membe with 5.8 percent. Once again, the top three positions belong to politicians whose political roots trace back to the Patriotic Front.
Only Fred M’membe stands outside that PF lineage.
This distribution matters politically. When the numbers from all three polls are examined together, they show that the PF political base remains numerically powerful but structurally divided. The same voter bloc that delivered 1.8 million votes in 2021 is now dispersed across Kalaba, Zulu and Mundubile.
For President Hichilema, the results illustrate both strength and opportunity.
Winning the Facebook poll on a platform widely associated with PF audiences suggests that the incumbent still enjoys measurable support even within opposition spaces. At the same time, the division among PF-linked figures means the anti-incumbent vote is currently splitting in multiple directions rather than consolidating behind one challenger.
This is the core strategic reality heading toward 2026.
If the PF-derived political base remains fragmented between Kalaba, Zulu and Mundubile, the electoral mathematics will largely favour the incumbent. If that base consolidates behind a single candidate, the dynamics of the race could change significantly, of course with no uncontested assurance of regime change.
The EMV poll therefore does not simply measure popularity. It exposes the unfinished battle for control of the PF political inheritance, a battle that will likely shape the structure of Zambia’s opposition long before voters go to the ballot box.
© The People’s Brief | Ollus R. Ndomu