FROM 1991 TO 2021, THE RUTHLESS ARITHMETIC OF BECOMING A PRESIDENT IN ZAMBIA
May 17 2026
I watched the recent press briefing by Brian Mundubile and Makebi Zulu, and one thing was immediately clear, when Mundubile used the now-famous “child driving at high speed” metaphor, it reportedly left even senior figures like Prof Nkandu Luo visibly stunned. That was not just a careless statement in my view, it was a revealing moment. It exposed the dangerous gap between political rhetoric and the intellectual discipline required to lead a nation of millions, truthfully you cannot compare Hakainde Hichilema and the Mundubile group.
Zambians must return to 1991, the year that shattered illusions. Frederick Chiluba defeated Dr Kenneth Kaunda in a brutal contest, but he did not do so in a vacuum, there was hard work. The difference was that Frederick Chiluba of the MMD built a nationwide political machine through ZCTU Zambia Congress of Trade Unions for 17 years.
He did not gamble on power, he engineered it through structures, numbers, and grassroots mobilization of the MMD movement across Zambia,The reason we saw MMD in southern, Western and North Western Provinces.
In 1996, the lesson became more brutal and unforgiving. Frederick Chiluba crushed challengers such as Dean Mungomba , Akashambatwa Mbikusita Lewanika, Chama Chakomboka, and Benjamin Yoram Mwila among others. Zambia sent a clear warning as usual, political ambition without a nationwide structure is not bravery, it is delusional.
Then came 2001, a battlefield of heavyweights.Vernon Mwanga engineered the Mwanawasa to come back.We saw Levy Mwanawasa emerged ahead of Anderson Kambela Mazoka in a very narrow defeat, among others defeated were Christon Tembo, Godfrey Miyanda, Nevers Mumba, and Ben Mwila. The verdict was brutally merciless, Zambia rewards reach, numbers, and organization. Sentiment and noise are irrelevant when ballots are counted.
By 2006, the political terrain had hardened even further. Levy Mwanawasa retained power against serious contenders like with rich political history, Michael Sata and Hakainde Hichilema a newcomer in politics after the sad death of Anderson Kambela Mazoka.
These were formidable opponents, yet the outcome proved that fragmented opposition, no matter how loud, cannot defeat a structured national campaign. Zambia does not reward noise, it rewards coordination, maturity, discipline and forward thinking Leaders.
The 2008 presidential by-election following Mwanawasa’s death was another ruthless lesson to Micheal Sata of the PF. Rupiah bwezani Banda who was the vice President to the late Mwanawasa narrowly defeated Michael Sata, showing just how decisive MMD structures and timing can be nationwide. It was not about who shouted the loudest, it was about who converted support into actual votes across the country very important
In 2011, the tide finally turned, but not by accident. Michael Sata of PF defeated Rupiah Banda after nearly a decade of relentless mobilization across the Country.It is a notorious fact that, that victory was not luck or fluke, it was the reward for endurance, strategy, and understanding of the Zambian voter. It confirmed once again, Zambia is won through persistence, not shortcuts and Facebook noise.
The 2015 and 2016 elections exposed just how tight and unforgiving the numbers had become.Dr Edgar Lungu edged out Hakainde Hichilema in fiercely contested races, at this point it was evident that Zambian were ready for Hakainde Hichilema. Those results proved that in modern Zambia, elections are no longer landslides, they are battles decided by margins, structures, and the ability to reach every possible voter across the nation. There is no room for complacency.
Then came 2021, the ultimate political verdict.Dr Hakainde Hichilema defeated Dr Edgar Lungu after 15 years of sustained political groundwork after the death of Anderson Kambela Mazoka the founder of UPND, very important. That victory was not emotional, it was mathematical. It was built on numbers, nationwide penetration, and a deep understanding of a country whose population has grown from 8 million in 1991 to over 22 million today.
This is the brutal truth, Zambia is too big, too aware, and too demanding to be won by rhetoric, press briefings or political shortcuts. They say that Power belongs only to the people, the brutal truth is that only those who prepare, organize, and convince the same people, relentlessly and without illusion, is very important.