From ZERO to HERO and Back to ZERO:
The Case of President Hakainde Hichilema and the faked Kwacha/$ Rate- Kasonde Mwenda

From ZERO to HERO and Back to ZERO:
The Case of President Hakainde Hichilema and the faked Kwacha/$ Rate.

By Kasonde Mwenda, C-EFF President
15 January 2026

“You cannot rig an economy.”
This long-standing economic maxim has survived every attempt at manipulation, spin, and propaganda — and Zambia’s recent currency episode once again proves its enduring truth.

In early January, the Zambian kwacha briefly became the subject of international attention after recording its strongest level in over 18 months. Sections of the United Party for National Development (UPND) quickly converted this temporary movement into a political victory parade. Headlines and party rhetoric portrayed President Hakainde Hichilema as a global economic champion who had “resurrected” a dying currency and engineered one of the world’s best-performing exchange rates.

But economic reality is far less theatrical.

The Illusion of Recovery

On 8 January, Reuters quoted Access Bank in an article titled “Most currencies under pressure from dollar demand.” The report provided the real explanation:

“Zambia’s kwacha is likely to see volatility next week due to an anticipated rise in demand for hard currency and dwindling supply…
The kwacha made strong gains this week as corporates offloaded dollars after the central bank’s late-December directive curbing foreign currency use in domestic transactions.”

In simple terms, the appreciation had little to do with improved productivity, export expansion, foreign investment inflows, or structural reform.
It was driven by a temporary regulatory shock that forced corporates to release dollars into the market — creating an artificial shortage of kwacha and a momentary excess of foreign currency.

This is not economic recovery.
It is a liquidity distortion.

No Fundamentals, No Foundation

A genuine currency turnaround is anchored in economic fundamentals:

rising domestic production,

export diversification,

increased foreign exchange earnings,

improved fiscal balance,

and sustainable debt management.

None of these have meaningfully improved.

Zambia remains heavily constrained by an IMF program whose austerity measures continue to compress domestic demand and weaken local industry. At the same time, the government has granted expansive tax holidays to multinational corporations — costing the country billions of dollars in foregone revenue while enabling aggressive profit externalisation.

This policy mix does not strengthen a currency.
It hollows it out.

The Collapse of the Narrative

As the saying goes, you cannot rig an economy.

Within two weeks, the kwacha had surrendered nearly all of its artificial gains, plunging sharply in just three days. The same political machine that had crowned itself a global economic miracle fell silent.

The “hero” moment dissolved as quickly as it had been manufactured.

What remained was the structural truth:
a fragile currency, a weakened fiscal base, rising debt obligations, shrinking public confidence, and an economy still searching for real productive transformation.

Conclusion

The episode stands as a textbook case of political theatre colliding with economic law.

President Hichilema’s government mistook a regulatory-induced fluctuation for structural success. The market, as it always does, delivered its verdict.

From Zero, to Hero, and back to Zero — not by political judgment, but by the unforgiving mathematics of economics.

Wherever we want to go our feet will take us there.

Written and Issued by:
Kasonde Mwenda C,
President, Economic Freedom Fighters-EFF.