KAPUMPE PROJECTS TOUGH BATTLEGROUNDS IN LUSAKA, COPPERBELT AHEAD OF 2026 POLLS
SOCIAL commentator Nkonkomalimba Kapumpe has projected a highly competitive race in several provinces ahead of the 2026 Presidential and General Elections, with Lusaka, Copperbelt, Northern and Luapula expected to emerge as key battlegrounds.
In a preliminary provincial outlook, Mr Kapumpe said the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) was likely to retain strong support in its traditional strongholds of Southern and Western provinces, while facing stiff competition in urban centres and parts of northern Zambia.
He projected Lusaka Province to favour the opposition overall despite UPND maintaining support in rural constituencies.
“Rural constituencies are likely to lean UPND, while urban centers will be contested. Projected split: UPND 40% | Opposition 60%,” Mr Kapumpe said.
According to the analysis, voter dissatisfaction in Lusaka City and surrounding districts could influence the outcome, while labour concerns and the cost of living were expected to shape voting patterns on the Copperbelt, where he projected a 55 percent share for the opposition against 45 percent for UPND.
Mr Kapumpe, however, forecast gains for UPND in Eastern Province, arguing that continued grassroots mobilisation and recent political defections could push the party above the 55 percent mark.
He said the province had seen consistent political groundwork since the last election cycle, a factor he believed explained recent defections from the Patriotic Front (PF).
In Southern and Western provinces, Mr Kapumpe predicted overwhelming support for UPND, estimating the party could secure around 80 percent of the vote in each province due to limited opposition influence and fragmented rival support.
For North-Western Province, he projected UPND to obtain 65 percent support, while attributing a portion of the opposition vote to political influences from nearby mining towns linked to the Copperbelt.
The commentator said Northern Province appeared more favourable to the opposition and independent candidates, projecting a 55 percent share against UPND’s 45 percent, while Luapula Province could see an even stronger opposition performance if local political figures successfully consolidated support.
“UPND’s strength remains in Southern, Western, and rural Lusaka/Central. The Copperbelt, Lusaka urban, Northern, and Luapula will be the main battlegrounds,” he said.
Mr Kapumpe further described Muchinga Province as a swing region likely to produce a 50-50 split between the two sides, with campaign mobilisation and candidate quality expected to play a decisive role.
In Central Province, he projected UPND to maintain an advantage due to its rural support base, although the opposition could remain competitive in urban centres such as Kabwe.
He cautioned that the projections were preliminary and that campaign dynamics, voter turnout and political defections could still influence the final outcome in several provinces.