KASAMA MAYORAL BY-ELECTION & WHAT IT COULD MEAN FOR 2026
The Kasama Mayoral by-election, which was won by the ruling UPND, may look small on the surface, but it offers a very interesting glimpse into what 2026 could look like under the proposed Article 7 (Bill 7).
First things first.
Going by the Kasama results, it’s clear that UPND did NOT cross the 50% + 1 mark, managing 44.6% of the vote. If such a result were replicated in the 2026 General Elections, it would automatically trigger a presidential rerun.
Reruns are never a comfortable space for incumbents. In most cases, they favour a united opposition. Mathematically, UPND would be outmatched unless the opposition remains divided, confused, and disorganised. Their biggest prayer is that unity among opposition parties never materialises.
Now let’s talk Article 7.
Article 7 introduces 40% proportional representation in Parliament, broken down as:
• 20 women
• 15 youth
• 5 persons living with disabilities
These 40 seats will be allocated based on the presidential vote.
Using the Kasama by-election as an example, the vote share was:
• UPND – 44.6%
• FDD – 37.0%
• CF – 8.0%
• UPPZ – 5.5%
• SP – 3.8%
• NFP – 0.7%
If these percentages were applied to the 40 proportional seats, the outcome would look like this:
• UPND: 18 MPs
• FDD: 15 MPs
• CF: 3 MPs
• UPPZ: 2 MPs
• SP: 2 MPs
• NFP: 0 MPs
This clearly shows that UPND would not dominate the proportional seats but would instead hold a plurality, while the opposition collectively would be very strong.
What does this mean politically?
➡️ For the opposition:
This is a massive wake-up call. The opportunity for unity is obvious. Unfortunately, with the current crop of leaders, personal deals, egos, and self-interest may once again derail that chance (and honestly… I doubt that will change).
➡️ For UPND:
Another serious wake-up call. Either:
• Swallow pride and work with some credible opposition leaders, or
• Perform an economic miracle:
• Dollar at 1:1
• Mealie meal at K50
• Zero load shedding
• 100% increase in meal allowances
• Fuel at K3 per litre
• Town to Chainda at K6
• Give locals mining licences
• Suspend or restructure student loan repayments
• Cheap farming inputs
• DSTV FULL BOUQUET ZALE!
(Yeah… impossible, right? )
In conclusion:
The Kasama by-election is a real eye-opener. Article 7, if passed, will significantly increase political party representation in Parliament after August 2026 and reduce winner-takes-all outcomes.
Well done to those behind Article 7 for pushing inclusivity.
And credit to UPND for maintaining peace during the election.
If Kasama is anything to go by, 2026 will be VERY interesting.
UPPZ MEDIA TEAM
Analytical l based on one bye election is wast of time shall we be serious.
Serious for sure, people must be. UPND will significantly collect votes from opposition strongholds as the case is for Chawama and Kasama. A composite of that added to the votes from it’s stronghold puts the Reds in pole position by far. People will cry ati where did all the campaign money go?
That is why we say, there is no opposition in Zambia, what we have are cartels, that has only objective, which is get into power.
HH and UPND was true opposition, and they had a plan of what they were going to do, which is currently being misused to get power.
The current political cartels, are going to the polls without saying they were going to do for the people, unfortunately, the gullible Zambians are being bought into. What is painful, is that even the so called educated falling to the trap.
How and why do you want to replace something that is working with something unknown?
You bring into power this political cartels, they will spend time stealing, and will take back the nation to pre-2021.
Dont be cheated, there is nothing that the polical cartels will do, that HH and his team are not doing.
Iam not UPND fan, but a Zambian using his logic and common sense.
Very flawed analysis indeed, based on a mayoral by-election. Here is a scenario: UPND gets 44% in 3 provinces=132, 50 percent in 4 provinces=200 and 80 percent in 3 provinces=240, total 5720, divided by 10=57.2%, on the lower side!. I am not UPND, but no human on this planet can perform the miracles you are dreaming about. In any case they just want to take over, to do what? To reduce mealie meal to K50 from the office? they are not explaining. I will not waste my time on opportunists, who think any body can be president.
General elections is a different animal. It’s okay to speculate or make some assumptions though.
Article 7 is a sharp arrow aiming at ruling party legislatively
The analysis of uppz, shows that the members didn’t understand the right concepts of the mathematical probabilities whilst in schools. They should have realized that Kasama was a strong hold of PF, and they should have first calculated the UPND progressive rate. Even in chawama, where people used the funeral sympathy (no critical thinking), UPND made had a high progressive rate. Otherwise as things, HH is likely to get more than 60% of the votes