KWACHA IN FREE FALL
By Fred M’membe, President of the Socialist Party
With the free fall of the Kwacha, what will Mr Hakainde Hichilema and his minions be bragging or boasting about?
It will be interesting to watch the monetary policy briefing on Wednesday and hope journalists will ask relevant questions such as, “what is the book value of unfulfilled forex demand?”
The Bank of Zambia has a daily “pipeline” of remittances that customers have placed but cannot be executed due to supply constraints.
How much have external debt arrears accumulated to both interest and principal on debt stand still/unserviced. What is the external due date? What’s the reserve position? How much forex has been pumped in as market support by the Bank of Zambia?
What multi/bilateral debts are we servicing and how much are they per annum? How much is the domestic debt stock total split between treasury bills and government bonds? How much of the total government securities debt constitutes foreign portfolio investors in value and percentage terms? Contrast this with how much forex reserves we are holding at the moment. And, should foreign investors pull out upon maturity, how much maturity risk are we carrying?
What is the Bank of Zambia projection/forecast on commercial interest rates to December 2023 given the increase in statutory reserves ratio? How much of the total commercial banks lending book constitutes SMEs and personal loans in percentage terms and value?
These are the kind of questions that journalists accredited to attend the press briefing should be asking the Bank of Zambia.
It is also incumbent upon the Bank of Zambia to provide an indicative GDP number for 2023 given the measures they have undertaken, and also taking into account the stalled debt restructuring exercise. The Ministry of Finance announced a 4.1 per cent growth. Does this still hold? Our view is that the revised number should be around 2.5 to 3 per cent.
These are serious matters that the government should be addressing and communicating to the nation rather than just carrying on with endless politicking.
