By Kapya Kaoma
When it comes to politics, voters are often manipulated into believing the impossible. One is left to wonder whether the ongoing divisions in the Patriotic Front are nothing more than a calculated deception—engineered by either Mundubile or Makebi—to ultimately endorse HH’s agenda.
The incumbent is at his weakest and has little to campaign on—save for “salt sana,” a slogan that rings hollow. A message like “Bally Has Failed to Fix It” would more effectively remind voters of the 2021 promise, “Bally Will Fix It.” After five years, has Bally fixed the economy, unemployment, poverty, roads, or healthcare? “Bally has failed to fix it” is far more compelling than “sugar sana!”
There is little doubt that many Zambians want Bally gone—yesterday. But only a united PF can bring him to his knees. Instead, the opposition appears to be deceiving voters into believing that fragmented camps can deliver victory. Voters are falling for it—and are likely heading toward the worst-case scenario: UPND winning nearly all parliamentary seats across Zambia, effectively turning the country into a de facto one-party state.
At the parliamentary level, there is no 50+1 requirement. This means UPND could still win constituencies even if it comes second in broader national support. Now, with PF fielding multiple candidates in the same races, the split vote will likely hand UPND first place in many constituencies—followed by candidates from Mundubile’s camp, Makebi’s camp, and smaller parties.
A similar pattern could emerge at the presidential level. However, because of the 50+1 threshold, a rerun would be likely. At that stage, the true allegiances may surface. Having lost the presidency, one camp could align with HH to secure the required majority, arguing that the opposing candidate lacks the credentials to lead. Even in the unlikely event that the opposition unites afterward, HH will have his new MPs to campaign for him. A defeated opposition is not likely to overcome the zeal of the truimphant ruling party! HH will easily win.
So unless these individuals have endorsed Hichilema, their actions amount to political self-sabotage.
Is it not time for Mundubile and Makebi to put Zambia first and sacrifice for the greater good? The reality is stark: regardless of how many parliamentary candidates they adopt, a divided front will lose decisively to UPND. The result would be the effective collapse of opposition politics in Zambia.
The opposition must also face another hard truth: a second Hichilema presidency could prove even more difficult for them. It could tighten political space, weaken dissent, and consolidate power further. Yet this outcome would not be inevitable—it would be the result of opposition fragmentation.
Supporters of both camps must also stop misleading their leaders. The path forward is clear: divided, they will lose. United, they at least stand a chance.
This applies to all opposition parties–claiming to be “the next president of Zambia” on social media does not make you one. Aside from PF, no opposition party has meaningful support to remove UPND from power. Social media noise does not translate into electoral strength. Unlike UPND in opposition, no current party commands a reliable ethnic or regional stronghold. Paying nomination fees and fielding candidates without a viable path to victory risks doing little more than endorsing HH’s second term.
Mundubile and Makebi must stop deceiving voters into believing that a divided front can win. They should either set aside their differences and unite—or be honest with the electorate about the dire consequences of their deadly division.