Northern By-Elections: PF’s Shadow, CF’s Entry, UPND’s Challenge

⬆️ ANALYSIS | Northern By-Elections: PF’s Shadow, CF’s Entry, UPND’s Challenge

The three by-elections in Northern Province have laid bare Zambia’s shifting political fault lines, particularly in what was once PF’s undisputed territory.

Start with Mufili Ward in Lupososhi. Citizen First’s Getrude Chanda emerged top with 522 votes, comfortably beating UPND’s Elias Mulenga on 417, a 105-vote gap. The Socialist Party and NCP trailed far behind. For Harry Kalaba, this is his biggest breakthrough yet. CF has not just shown up; it has beaten the ruling party in PF’s stronghold. That matters. It signals that CF’s appeal is cutting into opposition and ruling party bases alike, showing viability beyond rhetoric.

In Chibulula Ward, Mpulungu, the story was razor thin. NCP’s Mumba Shadreck clinched 784 votes, only 15 ahead of UPND’s Brenda Kaoma on 769. The Socialist Party and CF were distant. But this narrow win is deceptive. NCP has no stand-alone weight here; it leans heavily on PF’s machinery. PF cadres shifted their loyalties to NCP, keeping the Tonse partner alive. Without PF’s shadow, those 784 votes would have been impossible. The win is technical, not organic.

Chishi Ward, Nsama told a different story. UPND’s Pervious Kapembwa secured 463 votes, wiping out NCP’s Jaggery Mwaba, who managed only 16 votes. The ruling party stamped authority here, showing that in some PF zones, UPND still has the structure to dominate.

What do these results mean in the aggregate? Across the three wards, UPND polled 1,649 votes, Citizen First 632, NCP 895, and SP 341. On raw numbers, UPND remains the biggest force. But these contests also show that as the ruling party pushes deeper into PF’s strongholds, the fight will not be straightforward. Losses in Lupososhi and the close call in Mpulungu are not signs of collapse, but signals that UPND must restrategize if it hopes to convert footholds into firm territory.

Citizen First walks away with momentum. Winning Lupososhi shows that it can do what many other small parties cannot, stand on its own. The NCP victory, while significant, is inseparable from PF’s silent hand. The Socialist Party remains a distant third, consistent in showing presence but not yet threatening the front-runners.

The broader trend is clear: PF’s absence from the ballot has fractured its vote into competing hands. UPND, CF, and NCP are the beneficiaries, with CF emerging as the true new face of opposition potential. For UPND, the message is sharp, it cannot take PF’s former strongholds for granted. New ground requires new strategies. For PF, these by-elections underline its weakness: without unity, its “bedroom” is now a contested corridor.

The People’s Brief | Political Analysis