PATRIOTIC Front support in Lusaka has steeply declined than on the Copperbelt, South Africa’s University of Cape Town (UCT) has revealed.
According to the UCT’s Afro-barometer survey collected at the end of 2020 and released last month with the support of the Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Publicity Policy in Africa titled ‘Voting preferences among Zambian voters ahead of the August 2021 elections’ prepared by Jeremy Seekings and Hangala Siachiwena suggests that there had been: “Some erosion [of] support for incumbent President Edgar Lungu and the governing Patriotic Front since the 2016 elections.”
“Identification with the PF in Lusaka reduced by more than half between 2017 and 2020, while this doubled for the UPND from 11 to 19 per cent during the same period. Second, in the Copperbelt, identification with the PF reduced moderately (from 28 per cent to 23 per cent), while that with the UPND remained relatively unchanged. Third, the proportion of voters who did not feel close to any political party or who were close to a party but did not declare with party, increased by 12 per cent in Lusaka and 5 per cent in Copperbelt. This increase appears to have been at the expanse of the PF which had a reduction of voters identifying with it by 17 per cent point in Lusaka and 5 per cent points in Copperbelt provinces,” according to UCT.
“The declined support for the PF appears to have been driven by its poor economic performance and declines in living conditions of Zambians. While the PF has performed well in maintaining roads and bridges, the survey results show that urban respondents believe that it has done poorly at keeping prices stable, creating jobs, and handling corruption. In the 2016 presidential elections, the PF won most votes in Lusaka and Copperbelt. The PF would have to win in both provinces in the 2021 presidential elections to be certain of victory, in addition to retaining support in its rural strongholds. The 2020 Afro-barometer results suggest that support for the PF is precarious in urban areas and the ruling party could face an uphill battle to retain urban voters, particularly in Lusaka. It is likely the PF leaders are aware of their vulnerability in Lusaka, which could partly explain the increased likelihood of political party conflict in the
province.
“The analysis of partisan affiliation and voting preferences suggest that support for the PF has declined in the urban provinces. The decline appears to be much steeper in Lusaka than in Copperbelt.
Moreover, the UPND appears to have grown in support in Lusaka and, at the very least, maintained the same level of support in Copperbelt Province between 2017 and 2020. Importantly, the UPND seems to have slightly more support than the PF in Lusaka,.”
UTC added that this erosion of support seems to be widespread among both urban and rural voters.
It stated that a larger minority of voters, much larger than the previous surveys, declined to declare who they would vote for if elections were held.
“Most of these ‘undeclared’ voters are dissatisfied with the country’s economic performance under the present government…not only with regard to the economy but other issues also (especially corruption). The data on attitudes suggest that undeclared voters across Zambia as a whole are more likely to share attitudes with declared UPND supporters than with declared PF supporters. On the face of it, the PF support shrunk dramatically, or at least become much softer,” the UTC indicated.
The UTC further stated that the 2020 data provided evidence of a modest swing from the PF to the UPND.
It adds that: “Much more striking is the shift from declared support for PF in 2017 to being undeclared by the end of 2020. In Muchinga and Eastern provinces, two out of three voters were undeclared in 2020. The proportion of undeclared voters was smaller in Luapula and especially Northern Province, but in these provinces there was a dramatic decline in declared support for PF.”
“This data appear to suggest that many former PF voters – especially in Muchinga and Eastern provinces – have become undeclared voters without attachment to either party. This could be because they have grown disaffection from the governing party without embracing the UPND,” the UTC Afro-barometer stated.
The UTC noted that by 2020, the picture suggests modest change in Luapula and Northern provinces in that declared support for the PF had shrunk while, declared support for the UPND had grown.
With regards rural areas, the UTC noted that support for the PF in its strongholds softened with its former supporters becoming undeclared voters.
The UTC adds that softening had been moderate in Luapula and Northern provinces, but dramatic in Muchinga and Eastern provinces.
“This has been primarily by deteriorating economic conditions and dissatisfaction with government performance. The PF retained support of some dissatisfied voters, perhaps because of ethnic loyalty or allegiance to the President. It is impossible to say with any certainty how these undeclared voters will vote,” the UTC indicated.
In urban areas, the UTC revealed that two predominantly urban provinces, Lusaka and Copperbelt, had been PF strongholds accounting for 32 per cent votes which were about a third of all votes in Zambia, with President Lungu obtaining 60 and 63 per cent of votes in Lusaka and Copperbelt respectively.
“At parliamentary levels, the PF won 19 of the 22 Copperbelt seats (including 18 urban and one rural seat) while the UPND had three seats (all of them rural). The pattern was similar in Lusaka Province. The PF won eight of the 14 Lusaka parliamentary seats (including all seven urban constituencies and one peri-urban seat). The UPND won four peri-urban or rural seats. Two rural seats were won by independent
candidates,” stated the UTC.