Reuben Sambo
Reuben Sambo

By Charles Tembo

POLITICAL parties that lose power suffer from a power play fueled by the red hot expectation of a swift return to power, says MMD vice-president political Reuben Samboh.

Reverend Samboh says it is not difficult to predict what happens to a political party that has recently lost power in Zambia.

He says what is likely to happen is that the rejected PF will go the way of UNIP and MMD “or shall I say they will come the way of UNIP and MMD”.

“If the story of UNIP and MMD is anything to go by, then will shall start to see massive, massive defections of gigantic proportions,” Rev Samboh warned.

He said there is usually a red hot expectation within the party of a swift and quick return to power.

Rev Samboh said there are two clear stories of UNIP and MMD that provide a tale of study of Zambian politics.

“These two tales provide for any student of Zambian politics an observable phenomenon from where a case can be made. The question that now needs to be addressed is, can the dice fall differently for the Patriotic Front (PF) which has recently joined the queue? Can the PF disrupt the phenomenon?

The first thing that happens early weeks and months after the loss is that, there is usually a red hot expectation within the party of a swift and quick return to power. In most instances, there is the feeling within the party rank and file that they will be back on the handles of power at the very next election, if not earlier.

So every activity that they do is primed to feed this aspiration. Many meetings are held whose only agenda is to plan on how to get back into power. Soon that agenda starts to be expanded to include a discussion on who will play what role and who should be excluded in the next outfit,” Rev Samboh noted. “There are meetings everywhere in the party.

Some are ‘official’ meetings, others are ‘not so official’ but the persons attending these meetings all believe that their meeting was the most important. Those who are not attending the meetings start to wonder what criteria is being used for the invitations and so, they quickly find like-minded comrades to do their own meetings with.

Just that theirs, will be more ‘authentic’ than all the others. It is a power play, fueled by the red hot expectation of a swift return to power.”

He however, noted that the former leaders of the party start to be summoned by law enforcement agencies.

“The former leaders of the party start to be summoned by law enforcement agencies to answer to all sorts of charges. Initially, they can afford to rent crowds to accompany them to police and courts.

But soon it starts to be clear to all that four years six months plus is not tomorrow. It actually is about 55 months or 240 weeks, plus or 1,680 days or 40,700 hours, or over 2,440,000 minutes etc.

Before long, most of them start to cut a lone figure as they face prosecution. Some go to jail, others are let off but they are broke due to huge legal fees and mostly, in the process their health is fractured,” Rev Samboh said. “In the meantime, party ‘diehards’ (fwebaliko elyo twachitampile…), start to assert themselves and demand for a new set of leaders to be put in place through a convention, national conference, congress or whatever the name.

Make no mistake, for them it is about having an opportunity to socialise one last time and be fated by the immediate past leaders before they finish their gratuities.

At this point, some clear frontrunners and wannabes emerge and flood the airwaves. These are those who want to demonstrate their philanthropic ability as they jostle for their slot in the party at the national event.”

He said some former leaders would take a back roll to avoid suffering untold losses.

“…some of the former leaders conspicuously take a back roll and fizzle out altogether because they suspect that they could suffer untold losses if they get involved politically.

They do not want to be targeted by the new regime because somehow, somewhere they are hoping that they could be called upon for duty or better still they just want to go away quietly.

They have unfinished house projects, they have a profession to worry about. Strictly speaking, they are not ‘politicians’ in the true sense of the word. The conference will happen and new leaders will emerge with pomp and a sense of conquest,” Rev Samboh said. “The newly elected leaders will come back with a sense of readiness to give the new government a run for their money.

These are freshmen, they are robust and shrewd, but what they do not know is that, the real big boys of their party have not gone away. They are waiting in the wings to oust them at the right time so that they can run in the next election.”

He noted that with passage of time, the new leaders start to see their cadres become less and less enthusiastic.

“They start seeing them in close association with the ruling party. They start to hear about defections and so on. Before long, not everyone can attend MCC meetings as they did before and just a few remain to hold the party together.

By this time, the financiers long stopped to support the party for fear of ‘losing’ their businesses. The few who still support do it under the cover of darkness and with highly reduced margins,” Rev Samboh explained.

He said for UNIP and MMD “it has happened this way”.

Rev Samboh said that “it is the hope to see if former president Edgar Lungu will break the omen”.

“Soon it will be time to start positioning for the elections. The remaining cadres start to call on the big boys to save the party. They switch allegiances to the experienced guys who could unseat the opponents. This is sure to happen. At this time the big boys will emerge.

It is worse if the former president decides to return. For UNIP and MMD it happened that way. We shall have to see if former President Edgar C Lungu will break the omen.

Unfortunately, even now the big boys are pulling strings behind the scenes and they have their boys everywhere in almost all the meetings,” he said. “Towards the end of the five-year-cycle, the heat will be on in the party.

Splits are likely to happen, but they are inconsequential in respect of honestly contending for power because realistically speaking, the new holders of power in this case the UPND will make sure the big boys of the defeated party and their small boys don’t get a chance.

After all, his Excellency President Hakainde Hichilema already stated that the bar will be raised so high. If the story of UNIP and MMD is anything to go by, then will shall start to see massive, massive defections of gigantic proportions.

The members of PF will now see that their party may take forever to return to power. Suddenly, choir members will start to be seen in the regalia of the ruling party, then whole constituencies and wards start to move without notice.”

Rev Samboh said the PF will go the way of UNIP and MMD.

“As for the former leaders (ministers, provincial leaders, strongmen, etc) at this point, money is not so easy to dish out. They have accumulated huge lawyer bills and the creditors are knocking on the doors. They would be fortunate to still have a roof over their heads.

So you see in the play book it is hard to state with certainty that things will be different for the newly rejected PF. What is likely to happen is that they will go the way of UNIP and MMD or shall I say, they will come the way of UNIP and MMD,” stressed Rev Samboh. “As things stand, they are playing the very same game.

They are doing almost the same things that UNIP and MMD did soon after losing power. When you see their activities and listen to their talk, it is as though they learned nothing from history. How then can they have different results?”

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