By Kalapashi
It is becoming more and more mathematically impossible for the PF to win the upcoming general election. Here is why:
There is no argument that the UPND will still win its traditional strongholds of Southern, Western and North Western provinces more than comfortablely and increase its share of Central province significantly. With these 4 provinces firmly in its back pocket, the opposition party seems to have an enviable path to victory.
UPND can manage to win this election with the following combinations;
Get 50% each of Lusaka and Copperbelt.
Win either Lusaka or Copperbelt.
Get 40% each of Lusaka, Copperbelt and Eastern.
These are possible combinations based on current trends.
Consequently, if UPND manages to win both Lusaka and Copperbelt and perform well in Eastern, then it will get a landside victory. At a minimum, with its unequaled dominance in the South west central regions, UPND may only need to wrestle just about 10 seats from the PF for it to form govt.
Surveys and trends show that the UPND, outside of South west central, is currently very competitive in Lusaka and on the Copperbelt and doing quite well in Eastern province. Additionally, UPND has a strong presence in the Muchinga towns of Mpulungu, Isoka and Nakonde and quite comfortable elsewhere.
All that the reds now need is just a huge voter turnout and to be vigilant around the voting process as victory seems well within their reach.