Underestimating a Political Opponent
By Professor Lubinda Haabazoka
If this article offends anyone, I am sorry. But sometimes we need to tell the truth.
President Hakainde Hichilema joined mainstream politics immediately after the death of Anderson Mazoka. At that time, his political opponents included Michael Sata, Levy Mwanawasa, later Rupiah Banda, and Edgar Lungu. Apart from ECL, the other opponents were hard-tested politicians who moved from United National Independence Party, then formed Movement for Multi-Party Democracy and helped shape Zambian politics.
President Michael Sata then created Patriotic Front and overtook United Party for National Development to become the largest opposition political party. He even gave HH the nickname “Under Five.” It looked justified at the time because Michael Sata had been in the trenches of Zambian politics for a long time. Within 10 years of forming PF, he won the 2011 elections.
After 2011, HH remained stable and resilient, eventually becoming the country’s leading opposition figure, as confirmed by the 2015 by-elections. The man was gaining experience. By 2021, he caused a political upset just as Michael Sata did by unseating a sitting government. Winning that election confirmed that HH had gained significant political experience.
As an individual, HH excels in everything he touches. Coming from a very humble background, he pushed through the ranks, moving from a village to the University of Zambia. From the University of Zambia, he cemented his position as a business leader in highly competitive Lusaka. This is what many of his political opponents have missed. They underestimate him, forgetting that they are dealing with a man who rarely fails at what he commits himself to. A man who endured seven days in a small cell at Lilayi, with only a bucket for a toilet, and never gave up. Dean Mungomba broke down under Frederick Chiluba’s political tactics. Chiluba, having learned politics the hard way from Kenneth Kaunda, even became better than the teacher in some respects
When HH took office, he concentrated on two things: fixing public finances without severely affecting vulnerable people, and consolidating his political party.
On the economy, he went through the painful debt restructuring process while maintaining fiscal discipline and expanding social protection programmes such as Cash for Work, food packs, Social Cash Transfer, and the Constituency Development Fund (CDF). Given the limitations on public funds, he used Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to build major roads of national importance and expand township roads in several districts. He also eliminated the handout culture, so we no longer see cadres moving around distributing money in ways that create jealousy and resentment. Everyone has an equal opportunity. In procurement, one can get a contract whether they are PF or UPND. The man is always watching.
Politically, he has shown PF what power is and how to hold it. Kenneth Kaunda, Frederick Chiluba, and Levy Mwanawasa succeeded at that because of experience. Michael Sata, even in death, had succeeded at that. Today, opposition parties still look at HH as the man of 2006. That is their biggest mistake.
Unlike many other presidents, HH keeps his teams highly segmented and specialised. The economic team does not overlap into politics. The media team does not move into politics. The political team does not interfere in other areas. His economic team, for example, includes Situmbeko Musokotwane, Denny Kalyalya, Mr Dingani at Zambia Revenue Authority, and Chipoka Mulenga at Commerce, among others. These are people with very different personalities, but they account for every coin in the Zambian treasury. That is the resilience you are seeing in the economic fundamentals.
Like I said earlier, HH has excelled in almost everything he has done in life. There are people like that. You remember that friend at school who was good at all subjects, sports, church activities — almost everything they touched. That is HH. Therefore, opposition political parties must raise their game if they stand a chance to unseat UPND in 2031. 2026 looks already tricky.
When voters go to the ballot box today, they are no longer irrational. They choose from the options available. They choose someone they can trust, not necessarily the one who shouts the loudest or gives out the most money. Our voters have evolved. The youth are now in control, and many of them are educated. So debate HH on policy and explain how you can do better instead of relying on insults. Those politics are fading away. Rumour mongering is long gone. HH, Sata, and Chiluba all had one central message: the economy.
That said, the economic fundamentals are currently on HH’s side. So the battle ahead is enormous for the opposition. A man who took his son to Zambia National Service and not Harvard. A man who took his daughter to ZCAS University and not Switzerland. The man resonates with the ordinary Zambian, and that is the point his opponents often miss. They view him as an elite, but everything about him suggests he remains connected to ordinary people. Some opponents even laugh at his shoes. Yet he wears the same kind of shoes many Zambians wear. From a political perspective, when they mock him, they indirectly mock ordinary Zambians. That is where they miscalculate.
I know that, just like with Mwanawasa, many people may not fully appreciate him now, but HH will likely become a case study on how someone can rise from nowhere, win an election, avoid becoming overly excited by power, consolidate leadership, and eventually leave behind a memorable legacy.
Have a blessed Sabbath, everyone.