The security forces are loyal to ECL, PF will win – IHS Markit
A LEADING source of critical information and analytics for major industries, financial markets and governments has suggested that next week’s election is expected to be closely fought with the Patriotic Front (PF) appearing to secure victory.
The organisation has however stated that a United Party for National Development (UPND) victory, which it has assessed as moderately likely, would probably lead to rapprochement with international investors, including an early IMF deal.
In its special report, IHS Markit says the ruling PF appears most likely to secure victory on the back of the renewed attempts at revamping the economy and the strong support of the security forces, which remain loyal to the Lungu administration.
“The elections are pivotal to determining Zambia’s economic direction, including finalising ongoing IMF and debt restructuring negotiations and addressing creeping resource nationalism in the crucial mining sector. The election is expected to be closely fought; however, the ruling PF appears most likely to secure victory on the back of the renewed attempts at revamping the economy and the strong support of the security forces, which remain loyal to the Lungu administration,” the report state.
It further states that the opposition UPND’s alliance with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party is highly likely to mean a challenge to the results of the elections in the Constitutional Court, citing electoral fraud and abuse of electoral processes.
“This increases the likelihood of politically motivated violence between party supporters and security forces, with collateral risks to nearby property and passers-by. A UPND victory, which we assess as moderately likely, would probably lead to rapprochement with international investors, including an early IMF deal,” the report states.
The report says the mining fiscal regime is unlikely to be revised in the one-year outlook adding that the mine sites face a low likelihood of being targets for vandalism or arson attacks in either scenario, transit routes for copper or concentrate exports remain at an elevated risk of road blockades.
It says disruption of ground cargo shipments on key roads to and from Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Zimbabwe is also likely