UPND LIKELY TO GRAB LUSAKA, WHILE PF WILL GET COPPERBELT
The Candidates’ Comment morning
There is no doubt that this election is to a large extent, a two-horse race. It is an election whose top two contenders are the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND).
We have stated before that, the results of this year’s election will reflect the voting pattern of 2016. UPND will dominate in Southern, North-western, Western and a large part of Central provinces while the PF will dominate in Eastern, Muchinga, Northern and Luapula provinces.
While it appears that the UPND will eventually win the Presidential vote in Lusaka, the possibility is high that PF will win in Copperbelt with a reduced margin.
The dominance of UPND in Lusaka province spawns from the fact that in 2016, they got 242,172 while PF obtained 375,760 presidential votes – a difference of only 133,588. At the moment, PF is very unpopular in Lusaka. The little support you see them have on their rallies is comprised of ferried cadres from one constituency to the other. If President Lungu is going to Matero today, cadres and party officials of all constituencies will flock to where their leader is hence the huge numbers of people you see at their rallies. If you want to know whether or not PF is still popular in Lusaka, go to markets and ask people. In home bound buses and private places, many voters have no kind words for the PF regime. The thugs they have allowed to brutalize people and get illegal monies from markets and bus stations have to a very large extent contributed to their unpopularity in Lusaka.
Conversely, the UPND is not as desirable in Copperbelt. Hakainde Hichilema’s foot prints in issues of privatization of mines and his unclear stance over mining issues have not helped him much herein. When UPND was formed by late Anderson Mazoka, it was funded by Anglo-American which operated Konkola Copper Mine (KCM). Anglo-American openly funded UPND in the 2001 elections that saw late Levy Mwanawasa win those elections. Anglo-American withdrew its investment in KCM when the party they funded lost, with a view of punishing Zambian miners. It is that greedy and vengeful behavior of funders of UPND that put the Mwanawasa administration into desperation to sell KCM for a mockery of $25 million to Anil Agarwal’s Vedanta.
We all saw how Anil was mocking Zambians for buying KCM for $25 million whereas he made $500 million profits every month. Since then, there have been problems after problems at KCM which have resulted into loss of employment and supply opportunities for suppliers in the mines.
We know that the livelihood of people in Copperbelt is largely dependent on mining. Any challenges that mines face directly affects many families. Today, Hakainde has an open relationship with the Oppenheimers family who have a relationship with Anglo-America in the De Beers investment.
What guarantee is there that if UPND wins, we will not see Anglo-American back in Zambia after all the problems they put when they sort to revenge against Zambians for shunning UPND in 2001 elections?
Yes, Edgar may have managed to save jobs and preserve opportunities for some suppliers but he has not done the best there is at KCM. However, the little efforts made by Edgar have earned him some love and appreciation in Copperbelt in the face of general undesirability of the PF.
On the other hand Hakainde offers no clear solutions to mining problems surrounding KCM and Mopani. Is Hakainde’s solution bringing back an investor in the name of Anglo-American who abandoned Zambians after their failed attempt to impose a regime for the purpose of exploiting resources? The vagueness of Hakainde’s stance on mining issues has left many voters in Copperbelt to remain skeptical about his presidency. Yes, UPND has made inroads but we doubt they can overtake the numbers that the PF will get in these elections.
In 2016, PF got 345,275 while UPND obtained 189,562 presidential votes. The difference was 155,713 – more than the difference of final results between the two parties.