By Eddison Arnold Mombera, MBA (Oil, Gas & Energy Management Expert)
Africa’s energy map is being redrawn, and Malawi risks being left behind. While we continue to rely on the same fuel import routes and systems that existed before many of us were born, our neighbours are making bold, future‑shaping decisions as the old saying reminds us, tsoka la wina ndi mwayi wa wina—and indeed, pachoka nzako pali malo.
Today, Botswana, Zambia, and Angola are proving that energy security is not achieved through speeches, but through infrastructure, ownership, and strategic courage.
A New Regional Energy Bloc Is Emerging
Angola, Zambia, and Botswana have embarked on one of the most ambitious energy collaborations in Southern Africa: a massive oil refinery in Lobito, Angola, supported by a multi‑product pipeline stretching to Lusaka.
This is not a feasibility study destined for a shelf. It is a funded, structured, multi‑billion‑dollar project with clear timelines and shared ownership.
Key features include:
- A 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery, with 100,000 barrels per day allocated to Zambia
- A 1,400 km pipeline delivering petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and LPG directly into Zambia
- Joint stakes held by Angola, Zambia, and Botswana ensuring supply security and shared value
- Commissioning expected in 2026, positioning the bloc as a regional energy anchor
For Zambia, this marks a historic shift from being a perpetual importer of refined products to becoming a co‑owner of the very infrastructure that determines its energy destiny. For Botswana, it is a strategic hedge against global volatility. For Angola, it is a chance to capture more value from its crude oil rather than exporting it all.
This is what “walking bigger” looks like.
The Global Context: Volatility Is the New Normal
Oil markets are increasingly shaped by geopolitics rather than geology. Conflicts in the Middle East, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, and supply chain shocks have made long‑distance fuel procurement a high‑risk affair. Countries that depend on imported refined products especially landlocked economies are the most exposed.
Zambia and Botswana have responded by shortening their supply chains, reducing transport costs, and insulating themselves from global turbulence. They are not waiting for crises to dictate their fate.
Meanwhile, Malawi Still Uses the Longest, Oldest Route
Malawi continues to import nearly all its fuel through Tanzania, primarily via Dar es Salaam and Tanga, using long-haul road tankers. This model has remained unchanged for decades. It is expensive, risky, and vulnerable to disruptions beyond our control.
Recent events exposed this fragility:
Over 120 fuel tankers were stranded at the Tanzania–Malawi border during political unrest- Millions of litres of fuel were delayed due to congestion and suspended berthing at Tanga
- Emergency volumes had to be sourced from Beira, Nacala, and Zimbabwe
Even in stable times, our dependence on road tankers inflates:
- Transport costs
- Pump prices
- Accident and pilferage risks
- Border delays
- Carbon emissions
Tanzania remains a reliable partner, but reliance on a single corridor is not a strategy—it is a gamble.
How Malawi Can Leverage Cheaper Upstream Logistics
There is another lesson Malawi must urgently absorb: long-distance fuel movement should never rely on road tankers. Globally, countries that have mastered energy security use pipelines and rail for upstream transport, and reserve road tankers for short-distance downstream distribution.
Pipeline transport costs as little as US$0.01–0.03 per litre, compared to US$0.06–0.12 per litre for long-haul tankers. Malawi is currently using the most expensive method for the longest distance a structural inefficiency that guarantees high pump prices.
If Malawi connects to a regional pipeline whether through Zambia, Mozambique, or a future Lobito Corridor extension the expensive part of the journey becomes cheap. Road tankers would only be used within Malawi, for the final 50–150 km. This is how countries like Uganda, Rwanda, and Botswana have reduced logistics costs despite being landlocked.
In parallel, Malawi must build distributed strategic reserves across the country, connected by pipeline or rail. Instead of one or two central depots, we need multiple storage points each holding 30–60 days of cover, giving the nation 90–120 days of resilience. This model reduces national vulnerability, stabilizes prices, and allows bulk procurement at lower cost.
This is the kind of structural reform that transforms an energy system from fragile to future-proof.
What Lessons Should Malawi Learn?
1. Ownership Matters More Than Importation
Zambia’s 25% stake in the Lobito refinery guarantees supply and reduces forex pressure. Malawi has never owned any upstream or midstream asset in its fuel supply chain. We buy what others produce and transport.
2. Pipelines Are the Future
Pipelines are cheaper, safer, and more secure than road tankers. The Angola–Zambia pipeline will cut transport costs dramatically.
3. Energy Diplomacy Is a Strategic Tool
Angola and Zambia negotiated a deal that reshapes their economic futures. Malawi must elevate energy diplomacy to the same level as food security and water governance.
4. Infrastructure Must Evolve
Our storage depots, procurement systems, and logistics models are outdated. Meanwhile, our neighbours are modernizing at speed.
5. Fuel Security Is Economic Security
In an agri-based economy like ours, fuel price shocks hit hardest. They raise the cost of farm inputs, transportation, and food—deepening rural poverty.
A Strategic Roadmap for Malawi
Short-Term
- Expand fuel storage to at least 90 days of cover
- Strengthen alternative routes (Beira, Nacala, Zimbabwe)
- Digitize procurement and logistics
Medium-Term
- Explore a Malawi–Zambia pipeline interconnector
- Secure equity in regional refining projects
- Develop a national strategic fuel reserve policy
Long-Term
- Participating in regional energy blocs
- Invest in domestic biofuels and synthetic fuels
- Build a multi‑product pipeline in partnership with neighbours
Conclusion: Malawi Must Decide Whether to Walk Bigger
The Angola–Zambia–Botswana refinery and pipeline project is a bold declaration that Africa can build its own energy future. Malawi must not remain a spectator.
We must choose whether to continue relying on the longest, most vulnerable supply chain or to step into a future where energy security is built, not begged for.
THE TIME TO WALK BIGGER IS NOW!