Why HH might not manage to win the 2026 polls
By Chrispa Mulenga
As of today, there are approximately 1200 days before the general elections of August 2026. To the politically uninitiated, the 2026 elections appear to be a very easy transition for the incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema. Apparently, the opposition is just too weak and disorganized to put up a reasonable fight against the ruling party— so it is claimed!
Although, there is a naïve side of me that really wants to agree with the purveyors of such sentiments, there is that realistic side of thyself that refuses to believe such simplistic political theories.
Yes, we might have Hichilema as our president beyond 2026 but I am convinced beyond reasonable doubt that he won’t get it in the very first round.
There are a number of reasons why I think so.
1. The Lusaka/ Copperbelt factor
As you maybe aware, for one to become President of Zambia, they need to amass 50% plus 1 votes of the total votes. Lusaka and the Copperbelt are the major voting blocks of Zambia. Since time in memorial, these two provinces have always determined who becomes President of Zambia. With an exception of the 2006 and 2008 elections, whoever won out rightly in these two provinces always got the presidency.
As things stand, Lusaka and the Copperbelt are the most economically hit. In these two regions, the ruling party has become extremely unpopular. Problem is the ruling UPND doesn’t appear to have proper strategies that can reverse the trend. If this trend continues, UPND is very likely to get around 40% or less of the Lusaka and Copperbelt vote and that will spell doom for them!
2. UPND has never been naturally liked by Zambians
If you have been following Zambian politics for a while, you will agree with me that out of Zambia’s 7 Presidents, it’s only Presidents Fredrick Chiluba, Micheal Sata and probably Edgar Lungu who enjoyed that natural ‘love’ or ‘affection’ from Zambians. These were voted into power not because they appeared intelligent, rich, handsome or whatever, they were just loved by the electorates.
Look at President Sata! Was that old man really good enough for the presidency? Your guess is as good as mine!
That narrative of ‘naturally-free flowing love’ from the electorates cannot be said about President Hichilema. From the word go, despite his alleged intelligence, wealth and good looks, President Hichilema has never been the people’s man. He won the previous elections solely on sympathy grounds and the fact that the electorate didn’t have another better choice.
The fact that President Hichilema doesn’t enjoy natural affection from majority of Zambians makes him a bit vulnerable in the next elections.
This is the same factor that got President Rupiah Banda booted out during the 2011 polls. RB was a far much better President and the country was doing extremely well. But all that didn’t count because the natural affection which Zambians had for President Sata was just too much.
Conclusion
Forget about tribalism. It’s not so much of a factor these days. There are probably several other reasons why Hichilema might not out rightly win the 2026 elections. But we can only discuss a few reasons at a given time. Social media wasn’t meant for very long write ups.
Remember, 50% plus 1 will again be at play in the 2026 elections. Therefore, it’s not gonna be that easy for the ruling UPND. Let’s also remember that for the first time in the history of Zambian politics, we have a very formidable immediate past ruling party. The PF is capable of wreaking havoc. If they manage to get out of their convention in good shape, they will do wonders.