Why Hichilema and the UPND will be almost impossible to dislodge in 2026
By Osward Bwali (The Mast)
He flicks his tongue and licks his lips. Lying lips need a constant supply of amylase in the slimy secretion from the salivary glands. “This party is a mature party. Twenty-three years in opposition; resilient. We suffered the most brutality in this country. Now we are here, people think they can push us out easily.” He chuckles maniacally. “Aikona, aikona, aikona man (x7).” The crowd cheers with a standing ovation.
Are these claims of invincibility the rumblings of a maniac’s delusions of grandeur? Is it the fabled Emperor’s New Clothes of feeling fully and well-dressed when in fact naked and exposed? Hakainde Hichilema is not the first to exhibit this malady among incumbent politicians. Many former presidents have exhibited the omnipotence syndrome over their political rivals and the electorate. From Edgar Lungu handing power to himself to Peter Mutharika and countless African former heads of state. But history does not always repeat itself in a regular, predictable fashion. Hakainde may not be as stupid as he looks. Here is why I think it will take impossible effort and ingenuity to remove Hichilema’s United Party for National Development, UPND in short, from power.
A one termer is not unprecedented in Zambia. If anything, Rupiah Banda was a half termer. Elected in 2008 riding on Levy Mwanawasa’s coffin, Banda was walloped by Michael Sata in 2011. But Sata was a phenomenon. He was an experienced political genius, hated passionately by the UPND supporters to this date but loved heavenly by those who fell under his spell. But my point is that Sata could defeat an incumbent a day after an election.
Sata’s oratory and standup comedy would figuratively bring the nation to a standstill when he was on Radio Phoenix. A dozen of semi-literate taxi drivers would forget about their overdue cashing as they clamoured to read The Post report of what they already head Sata say the previous morning. He had a deliberate perfect blend of tribal and national appeal. Of course, Southern Province was impenetrable, as ever. Banda, having barely snatched the presidency in 2008, was no match for Sata in 2011.
And the streets poured and roared till dawn. In the euphoria that hit Copperbelt and Lusaka, even the most jealous husband failed to notice his wife was moving in jampacked shanty streets clad in nothing except a crimplene bedsheet around her sumptuous rear. But Sata was Sata. Razor sharp and effortlessly brutal. Even before, Sishuwa Sishuwa’s academic biography of him, he was immortal. Hichilema, once fondly referred to as junior cobra in a doomed political pact, has no Sata. Rupiah’s one term was a one-off. Hakainde’s two term is almost guaranteed.
Poor readers may not realise it, but I have just given one reason. There’s currently, or ever, no single formidable talented politician with the King Cobra’s charm and venom to unseat Hichilema after just five years of failure. I will now move to the next reason.
Hope. Hichilema won in 2021 by a long mile. He beat his closest competitor by a million votes. His first term has been anything but glamorous. Free education, CDF, Lungu, Lungu, is their mantra. Back to reality, Zambia has fallen in the grip of agonising poverty during the fixer’s reign. The economy has holes like Swiss cheese.
Blessed are those like madam Laura Miti who may have found a niche in the CDF meat buffet. She will compose praise hymns for Hichilema and the UPND that will make the heavenly choir envious. Yes, a few bank accounts are burgeoning. That is expected of not only Miti but other politically exposed persons from civil society, the pulpit, academia, contracting, and royalty. But I speak of the ordinary person. Including the beggar typing the economy is doing great or headed to unprecedented greatness. You may not realise this until a diehard supporter calls you asking for a very modest amount of money to sort out a very small problem.
We are in a nightmarish quagmire beyond our fears of a continued Patriotic Front rule. If you forget the rhetoric from government and partisans, it’s gloom all around the vital economic indicators, inflation and exchange rate. Every kwacha on the price of fuel sends a devastating dominoes throughout the economy from production to consumption. Everyone is begging. Nalumango is slaying.
But voters have hope. Even if it is hope against hope, it is still hope. The UPND political fortunes hang on many hopes. Hichilema, Nalumango, Mutolo, Kapala, Kabuswe, Chipoka, Haimbe, Nkombo, Muchima, Masebo know what they are doing. They don’t. But hope is hope. It’s foolish and senseless. But many miserable marriages are clocking five, ten, twenty years because of hope that he will change. Just give her a bit of time. Many say and hope that five years just isn’t enough. The damage caused by the monkeys is too much to be fixed in a few years by cows.
Lawfare is another huge arsenal in the Hichilema political armoury. Existing laws will be stretched to breaking point to fix opponents and create opportunities for the UPND. New laws will be passed to advantage the incumbent or disadvantage the opponents. Constitutional institutions have been filled up with party loyalists so that they can ‘legally’ execute the whims of the executive and ruling party. Bar Malanji and Lusambo from standing. Disenfranchise Edgar Lungu. Destroy the Patriotic Front. Shield Hamasaka and Mwiinde from investigation for abduction and attempted murder of Jay Jay Banda. Shield Batuke Imenda, Buumba Malambo, Douglas Syakalima from hate speech prosecution. Detain indefinitely “Why Me”Kapwepwe and cage Kambwili for hate speech. Lawfare is warfare. But the opposition have only a blunt kitchen knife.
The last reason is tribalism. There’s tribalism among Bembas, easterners. But Tonga or Zambezi tribalism is a beauty to behold. The history goes back to the Nkumbula days. Mazoka allied with some ethnics like Sichinga, Chisanga, Mtonga. But with hindsight, one cannot help thinking these were cosmetic, strategic tokens. They were mere garnish on a wholesome Tonga meal. Lubinda, Sichinga, Mtonga, Chisanga were shaken out of their Disney in 2006 or soon after. Despite deteriorating health, Mazoka refused to entrust anyone of them to lead the party. After his death, the hidden quota system in the UPND constitution was revealed: Only a Tonga would succeed Mazoka. You can feel a bitterness and indignation in Sakwiba twenty years after the fact. In the intervening years, the party all but withered elsewhere but remained immutable in Southern Province. Mwanawasa, Banda, and Lungu were left frustrated and helpless against the impenetrable ethnic palladium.
Northern and Eastern regions will have twenty presidential candidates jostling to unseat one from the same region. Zambezi will have Hichilema and Muliokela. You literally must be mad to stand against Hichilema from Zambezi region. Hamududu’s cameo appearance was an opportunistic attempt to be the new chosen one of Zambezi should Hichilema fail again. Back to default, two years before elections, he has unilaterally endorsed Hichilema. Ndambo, a charismatic man marching Mazoka’s national appeal had to be nipped in the bud, not to be heard of again. Perhaps.
Chiluba had opposition from his own people. They even rejected his attempt to extend his stay in power. Sata had rebels including Faustina Sinyangwe. Lungu could not have done so badly without intense non-stop censure and exposure from his people or tribal cousins. They were essential for his downfall. Don’t try to imagine this with Hichilema. It is unthinkable.
Tonga-Zambezi ethnicism is a brick by brick, layer by layer architecture. Ethnic purging of the civil service and quasi government institutions ensures complete support from key government institutions. Fearless against Lungu, HRC’s Muleya is pulling more punches than Tyson against Jake Paul. Heroic private media, NGOs, Ndulos, Bishop John H Mambo, and academics who criticised Lungu and PF only did it because he was not their own; to replace him with their own. You will never hear Mukuni or Chisunka utter disapproval. Time has exposed them.
Driving, building, contracting or consulting, luncheoning, awaiting appointments. They have formed an ethnic protective belt around Hichilema and the UPND. They will ignore or provide mind-bending rationalisation of Hichilema’s litany of failures. Bembas are lazy and suffer from poverty of the mind. Miti, Privilege Hang’andu, O’Brien are ever in get set position ready to have a go at Sishuwa should he try to expose the UPND failed experiment. Hangándu’s counter letter to the dodgy Nuncio is the latest. The cabal of ethnic apologists will ensure they provide a buffer against attacks on Hichilema. Lungu was not privileged with such tribal protection from the intelligentsia.
Hate them or love them, the UPND are here to stay. They have an undivided loyal ethnic base from the herder to the professor. They have the state machinery in the hands of ethnic loyalists. They have a pliant deaf and blind Western diplomatic corp. A few mingalato and strangulations, a few token ethnic useful idiots, a few abductions, a few indefinite detentions, some by-elections. And 2026 victory for the UPND is a foregone conclusion.
Osward Bwali is a Zambian anthropologist with an MA in Social Anthropology and African Studies. He lives and works in Kenya. Email: oswardbwali@gmail.com.
This is a very big wish by the author. But take it that Upnd and Hichilema are already gone whether they want that or not! It’s just soon, they will be part of History. Whatever tricks they do they don’t have any choice but to go out of government in August 2026.
Keep on dreaming.Its sad that you can’t differentiate between fantasy and reality
MARK MY WORDS, IF UPND DOES NOT IMPROVE ON THE ISSUES THAT PEOPLE ARE COMPLAINING ABOUT WHICH CAN BE SUMMED UP AS THE COST OF LIVING, THEIR RETURN TO POWER AFTER 2026 WILL NOT BE EASY AND SHOULD THEY RETURN, THEIR PALIAMENTARY NUMBERS WILL TAKE A BIG HIT.
“Zambezi will have Hichilema and Muliokela. You literally must be mad to stand against Hichilema from Zambezi region.”
Yaba!
I agree with you when you say that HH and his Ministers you have mentioned know what they are doing. No one can let his hat to be snatched by another person and he remains seated and watching. May be others but not HH. Bakutengela kasoti kako, iwe uli ndwii, unless you not normal. Even when Mandanda is saying ba UPND are already gone whether they like it or not, to me he sounds over ambitious. Some things are easier said than done, after all the one with the last say is God, therefore you can’t predict things as if you were a god? It’s better just to say that we don’t know, but we know that things will be tough.
However, I don’t agree with you when you say that the people who worked with HH to deputize UPND were just cosmetic. To the contrary, it were some of those people themselves who were not sincere and honest to the party and to their president and had they continued, it could have been impossible for UPND to form government in 2021. If HH can work very well with Mutale Nalumango, why should he have failed to work well with Nawakwi, Canisius Banda or Sichinga? The problem was with them because each one of them wanted to take over from Mazoka and lead UPND of which they could not have managed because of their insincerity and UPND could have been history by now. I have said it before and I will say it again, if Edith Nawakwi had honestly worked with HH, herself and not Inonge Wina or Mutale Nalungo could have been our first female Vice President in this country. Equally, in 2016 and beyond, if GBM had honestly worked with HH, in 2021, he could have been our Vice President instead of Mutale Nalumango. If Mutale Nalumango was the one who came early, UPND could have been in power long time ago, may be they could have already served more than two terms by now.
It’s also not true that the people from Zambezi region only vote for their own, totally far from the truth. Unless you are forgetting your history, when Kaunda was removed from power in 1991, he was removed by all Zambians. In Southern Province, Chiluba got a lot of votes more than he got from Luapula, his home Province. Just check your political archives, you will find these facts. Then Chiluba was not removed but rejected because of his third term bid and the rejection was from all Zambians and not only from the Zambezi region. Then Mwanawasa took over and did extremely well especially that the country’s foreign debt was cancelled through HIPC initiative. Mwanawasa left a very good and vibrant economy, but unfortunately when he died, RB who continued after his death was removed by PF and within a short time, the once vibrant economy was completely run down, but the blame you are putting on HH now. Who removed RB? Was he not removed by you people from the North-Eastern region? Why do you keep on talking about the people of North-Western region even accusing them of having failed, having damaged the economy when actually it is you who damaged the same economy. For example, HH refused his Ministers to use ma GX but mu PF, ECL officially allowed his Ministers to eat, ati ubomba mwibala alya mwibala and you think an economy of the country can grow like that, it’s not possible. That’s why HH found the treasury empty because Impiya shines balilya. Where in this world can you find the president’s child with more than sixty vehicles? This is the time when we are seeing and feeling the effects of that gross economic mismanagement which went on for a long time and was caused by Lungu and not HH. Someone left unsustainable debt and others want HH to fix it in two years, does that make sense, no it doesn’t, it’s nonsense.
Then you are saying Chiefs like Mukuni and Chisunka are quiet, why should they continue talking if things are okay. Whose house has HH invaded they they did to him? Had the same Chiefs and the International Community not talked, HH could have been killed. Chief Cannot talk now, HH is treating him well, no one has abducted his dear wife the way PF did. Chief Chivunda cannot talk now because he is well looked after by HH, he is now living in his beatiful palace, something ECL could not do in his seven years in power. HH has built palaces in all the ten provinces of Zambia, he ha increase CDF, drought relief and SC transfer, why should someone come to cheat and disturb the people. This high cost of living has been worsened by the drought, Israeli Gaza and Russia Ukraine wars, and all these things are coming to an end soon. Things will start improving very soon and by next year, people will even stop talking.
Sorry, there are some errors;
It’s Chief Chisunka and not Chivunda.
It’s Chief Mukuni and not Chief cannot talk