ACADEMICIAN Sishuwa Sishuwa says much will be at stake in the 2021 presidential and general elections.
And Dr Sishuwa is asking Electoral Commission of Zambia chief electoral officer Patrick Nshindano if he cannot provide satisfactory responses on how he arrived at the declaration that 2021 elections will be a tight race, to withdraw those “inappropriate” remarks and apologise to the public because they have the potential to undermine the integrity and credibility of the electoral process long before the first ballot is cast.
“Much will be at stake in the 2021 election. For both President Edgar Lungu and UPND’s Hakainde Hichilema, winning Zambia’s 2021 election is a matter of life and death. Lungu will seek to win in order to escape possible prosecution. Hichilema will seek to win in order to prevent the end of his political career,” he said. “What is needed is an impartial referee who will apply the rules fairly and provide a level playing field for the political players who are competing for ‘government’. Can the ECZ be that referee? They have no choice, in my view, if they have to produce a credible outcome that is acceptable to all concerned.”
On ECZ, Dr Sishuwa said the comments attributed to Nshindano suggesting that the 2021 elections would be highly contested and a tight race were inappropriate.
“First, the core function of the Electoral Commission of Zambia is to organise, supervise and administer elections in a fair and impartial manner. It is beyond the constitutional and legal mandate of the Commission to make predictions or to pronounce themselves on possible closeness or outcomes of future electoral contests,” he noted.
“The task of making predictions about the closeness or outcomes of future electoral contests is a responsibility of researchers working on elections, political analysts, pollsters, or even the competing political actors who may simply want to embellish their chances of victory. The ECZ’s job is to facilitate and promote conditions that are conducive to the holding of free and fair elections.”
Dr Sishuwa argued that Nshindano’s comments were inappropriate in that Zambians do not know the names of candidates yet and total number of those who would stand for presidency in 2021.
“Would the governing PF field President Edgar Lungu or would the ruling party choose another candidate at its forthcoming convention? Would the main opposition UPND field Hakainde Hichilema? Would the National Democratic Congress leader Chishimba Kambwili be on the ballot or would he be a running mate to Hichilema?” he asked. “Would the two socialist parties of Dr Fred M’membe and Wynter Kabimba each float a presidential candidate? We do not know for certain at this stage the answers to these key questions. Even if we assume that there will be only two candidates, say, Lungu and Hichilema, in 2021, there is no guarantee that either of them would obtain the same or close to the same number of votes that they received in the 2016 election. This is because the loyalties of Zambians who previously voted for these candidates may have shifted since then or love the past few years. For instance, some of those who previously voted for Hichilema may this time opt to vote for M’membe or Kambwili. Similarly, some who voted for Lungu in 2016 may this time decide to take their votes elsewhere in protest against President Lungu’s record since 2016, such as the worst ever economic performance; highest levels of corruption; highest incidence of inequality; greatest assaults on democracy; freedom of speech and opposition; highest levels of debt; and deepening ethnic divisions.”
He said it was strange for Nshindano to stand on a platform and declare with absolute confidence that the 2021 election would be tightly contested and end up as a close race, “purely on the basis of inappropriate historical comparisons, personal imagination and outright assumptions”.
“What is going on? Is there something that Zambians are not being told by the ECZ?” he wondered. “In any case, it is not enough for any of the individual political leaders to express interest in seeking election to the position of President of Zambia. One also has to be validly nominated, in line with the provisions of the Constitution of Zambia and other relevant electoral laws. For example, Article 52 of the current Constitution allows any citizen to legally challenge the nomination of a candidate who has filed their nomination for President within seven days of the close of nominations. It also obligates the court to hear the matter within 21 days of its lodgement and to make a conclusive determination of these processes at least 30 days before a general election.”
Dr Sishuwa said it was not a foregone conclusion that once a candidate for elective public office has filed in their nomination papers, then they would be on the ballot.
“They can be disqualified either by the ECZ themselves or the courts of law. Given all these unpredictable variables, how did the ECZ arrive at the conclusion that the 2021 election would both be highly contested and be a tight race?” he asked.
“Was there any scientific polling that was conducted that renders credibility to the Commission’s views? If yes, who conducted that poll and why is the ECZ playing the role of the pollster’s publicity? If the ECZ Chief Electoral Officer cannot provide satisfactory responses to these questions, then he would do well to withdraw those inappropriate remarks and apologise to the public because they have the potential to undermine the integrity and credibility of the electoral process, long before the first ballot is cast.”
He said as way of restoring public trust and confidence in the electoral body, the Commission needs to be consultative, transparent and build consensus with all the key stakeholders that are involved in the electoral process.
“This includes representatives of political parties, civil society, and international institutions or bodies that help finance Zambia’s elections like the United Nations Development Programme,” said Dr Sishuwa. “Building consensus is important because it guarantees trust and credibility in the integrity of the electoral process. If the strange prediction by the ECZ that the 2021 election will be a tight race is correct, then the integrity and credibility of the electoral process would crucially determine the willingness of the losers to accept the outcome. There are many Zambians who, on the one hand, believe that President Lungu and PF may attempt to perpetuate their stay in power by manipulating the 2021 elections in their favour and others who, on the other hand, believe that the main opposition UPND and Hichilema will likely rebel against an election result that does not favour them. The best way of avoiding either outcome is, in my view, for the ECZ to build consensus, strike compromises where necessary, and promote transparency in the electoral process – not through rhetoric but tangible and discernible actions.”