SISHUWA Sishuwa has warned that the country may burn after August 12 if the elections will not be credible.
In his reflections, Dr Sishuwa, a senior research fellow in democracy at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, says President Edgar Lungu and team have removed lawful means of competing for power.
“My worst fear is that with collapsing institutions, a collapsed economy, a deeply divided society and an impoverished population, Zambia may burn after 12 August in the absence of a credible election. It is the nagging idea that it is the violence which may deliver victory to any of the main political elites vying for State House, not votes,” he said. “Whether the country can endure this without civil war is another matter only our future can determine. What is not in dispute is that Zambia is a powder keg, a bomb, being primed to explode. This is because President Edgar Lungu and his friends in power have effectively eliminated constitutional and lawful means of political competition for the occupation of government…”
He highlighted other deficiencies President Lungu has brought on the country’s governance system.
“…loaded the courts with loyal judges; turned the police into a political tool, and armed it to the teeth; made a mockery of Zambia’s democratic tradition and reduced supposedly independent state institutions (ECZ, ACC, DEC, etc.) into toothless branches of the party in power to be unleashed on critics and political opponents,” Dr Sishuwa added. “…collapsed the economy, turning millions of Zambians into fearful beggars easy to corrupt and bribe; deeply polarised Zambia on ethnic and political lines; generated mass unemployment and weakened the trade union movement to a point of rendering it useless to the working class.”
He said President Lungu’s administration has generated mass youth unemployment, and has massively grown prostitution.
Dr Sishuwa said the current government has also promoted youth alcohol and drug abuse, swelled the ranks of street kids and orphans, among other vices.
“…exploded violent crimes, increased youth remand and imprisonment, and produced a generation of young people eager to be deployed for political violence; paved the way for bribery and corruption to thrive and destroy even the moral fibre of the leaders of the Church and converted some into party cadres,” Dr Sishuwa said. “…destroyed some and weakened and intimidated most of the private media; used sustained neglect, financial strangulation and bullying to turn public universities led by the University of Zambia into upgraded secondary schools and ghost institutions.”
He observed that President Lungu has also created what he termed a dubious voter’s roll to his advantage.
Dr Sishuwa added that the Head of State has also turned PF cadres into State police.
“…created a new, dubious Voter’s Roll to make it nearly impossible for Lungu to be evicted from government through elections; enacted a cybercrime law to police social media,” he said. “…recreated party cadres as the informal police out to terrorise citizens who do not toe the line or identify with the wishes of those in power. With mass unemployment and widespread poverty, both in our urban and rural areas, ‘party cadres’ given birth to and grown during the Kaunda era, matured under Chiluba and have now become perfect tools for our corrupt and violent political elites to deploy against their political opponents.”
He noted that sadly, mass unemployment provided an endless supply of desperate impoverished youths as ‘party cadres’ “to our violent political elites for use as they see fit”.
Dr Sishuwa charged that the PF government has also “stockpiled weapons to kill potential protesters in the event of a flawed election outcome”.
“A cocktail for civil war has thus been brewed: mass poverty + a restless violent party cadre + rigged elections + desperate political elites + collapsed government = Civil War. This is the dangerous end to which Mr Lungu and his friends are taking the country,” he warned. “It is not inevitable; there is no fatalistic reasons why it must actually take this route, our history. We need to intervene and interrupt this equation. It can be done. By we, I mean, the people, a movement, a mass movement of anger critical of any ‘saviour’ dressed in any political clothes.”
He called for a reclaim of people’s civil and political rights, adding that the country was founded on democratic principles.
“We the people need to reclaim our agency in our own cause. I recognise that this is a tall order considering that now we are thrust too deep in narrow ethnic, regional and tribal identities to come anywhere close to being a people,” said Dr Sishuwa. “But we must rise above these confines and unite. Zambians, unite! Otherwise, we must wait for the rivers of blood and broken skulls. How can we avoid this nightmare, this painful and disastrous fate?”