VIEWPOINT | Zambia’s Stock Market Boom Says More Than Politics Will Admit
While Zambia’s political debate remains dominated by claims that “nothing has changed, since 2021” the country’s financial markets are delivering a different verdict. From early this year, the Lusaka Securities Exchange (LuSE) has become one of the best-performing stock markets in the world, forcing a harder conversation about what economic progress actually looks like and how long it takes to reach ordinary households.
According to Bloomberg market data, LuSE’s benchmark index is up nearly 17% in U.S. dollar terms so far this year. This performance ranks Zambia second out of 92 global stock exchanges tracked, beaten only by Bulgaria. It places Lusaka ahead of far larger emerging markets such as South Korea and Colombia, and well ahead of most African peers. Nigeria, often cited as Africa’s market bellwether, trails with gains of about 8% over the same period.
This matters because global markets have been uneven at best. Inflation hangovers, geopolitical risks, and slowing growth in advanced economies have weighed on investor sentiment. Against that backdrop, Zambia’s equity rally stands out as a rare bright spot.
What is driving the rally?
The first and most obvious engine is copper. Prices have surged to around US$13,000 per metric tonne, consecutive record highs that directly benefit Zambia’s export earnings, fiscal outlook, and mining balance sheets. For investors, copper is not just a commodity. It is a signal. When copper is strong, Zambia’s macro story improves almost automatically.
The second driver is currency performance. The kwacha has appreciated by nearly 12% against the U.S. dollar, making it one of the strongest-performing currencies tracked by Bloomberg this year. For foreign investors, currency stability is critical. Equity gains mean little if they are wiped out by exchange-rate losses. Zambia is currently offering both.
Third is the broader macro backdrop. After drought-induced shocks in recent years, agricultural output has improved and electricity generation has stabilised. These are not headline-grabbing reforms, but they matter deeply to productivity, costs, and confidence. Markets tend to reward predictability before they reward prosperity.
Mutisunge Zulu, Chief Risk Officer at Zambia National Commercial Bank Plc, captured this shift in sentiment succinctly when he noted that:
“The bourse is increasingly serving as a barometer of Zambia’s economic trajectory, signaling resilience.”
He added that: “The index now tells a coherent story of mining–energy interdependence, balance-sheet strengthening, and improving investor confidence.”
This language may sound technical, but its meaning is simple. Investors are reading Zambia as a country that has stopped free-falling and started stabilising.
This did not start yesterday.
LuSE’s momentum did not suddenly appear in 2026. In August 2025, the exchange recorded a 14.3 percent gain in a single month, one of the strongest monthly performances globally at the time. That rally coincided with progress on debt restructuring, easing inflation pressures, and clearer policy signalling.
Over time, Zambia’s equity market has also broadened. Listed firms such as Zambia Sugar Plc, Standard Chartered Bank Zambia, and Pamodzi Hotels Plc anchor the exchange, providing sectoral diversity beyond mining alone. Liquidity remains limited by global standards, but depth is improving.
Where does the IMF fits in?
This stock-market surge is unfolding just as Zambia exits its IMF Extended Credit Facility programme, having restored a measure of fiscal credibility after years of distress. IMF programmes are often unpopular politically, but markets tend to view programme completion as a seal of discipline. It signals that macro controls are back in place, debt has been restructured, and policy surprises are less likely.
Foreign reserves are rising. Inflation is trending downward. Borrowing costs are moderating. These are not abstract indicators. They are the foundations on which investment decisions are made.
Why people say “we feel nothing”?
The opposition’s argument is emotionally powerful: markets, reserves, and IMF praise do not buy mealie meal. That critique is not entirely wrong. Stock markets move faster than living standards. Capital reacts before wages do. Stabilisation always precedes distribution.
But dismissing these indicators as meaningless misses the sequence of economic recovery. No country fixes jobs, incomes, and services while its currency is collapsing, its debt is unsustainable, and investors are fleeing. Markets are not the destination. They are the early warning system that the direction has changed.
The uncomfortable truth
Zambia’s stock-market rally does not mean prosperity has arrived. It means the economy has stopped bleeding and is starting to heal. The benefits will not automatically trickle down. They require policy choices, time, and political discipline.
But it also means the claim that “nothing is happening” is no longer supported by the data. Something is happening. Quietly. Unevenly. Imperfectly. And, as markets are now signalling, in a direction that global investors recognise long before voters feel it.
The real political test is not whether the rally exists. It is whether leaders can convert this fragile confidence into jobs, incomes, and services before public patience runs out.
© The People’s Brief | Ollus R. Ndomu