A $72 Billion Pledge: Separating Fact from Fiction
By Dr Mwelwa
The recent announcement of a $72 billion investment pledge from a Vietnamese investor in Zambia’s agricultural sector has certainly grabbed headlines. However, as the old adage goes, the devil is in the details. This colossal pledge raises serious red flags that the government must address with the utmost caution and scrutiny.
Firstly, the sheer scale of the proposed investment – $72 billion over 20 years – is simply staggering, even for an economic powerhouse like Vietnam. To put this in perspective, Vietnam’s entire GDP in 2022 was estimated at around $366 billion. Can a single Vietnamese investor realistically commit nearly a fifth of their country’s entire economic output to a project in Zambia? The skepticism is warranted.
Secondly, the lack of information on the investor’s background and track record is highly concerning. While the company, “Viet-Zam Diversified Development Company Limited,” is said to be registered in Zambia, its history, financial strength, and proven ability to execute projects of this magnitude are conspicuously absent. Relying on a pledge from an unknown entity with no proven track record is a recipe for disappointment, if not outright disaster.
Moreover, the sheer scale of the land allocation – 7 million hectares across three provinces – raises further questions. Is the Zambian government certain that it can legally and ethically allocate such a vast expanse of land to a single investor, especially one without a proven track record? The potential for land disputes, environmental damage, and the displacement of local communities is palpable.
Perhaps most alarmingly, the government’s own figures seem to contradict the lofty claims made about this investment. According to the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry, the total committed investments in Zambia have increased from $3 billion in 2021 to $40 billion in 2023. If that is the case, how can a single $72 billion pledge from a Vietnamese investor suddenly account for a significant portion of the total?
The government must exercise extreme caution in vetting this investment proposal and resist the temptation to make grand proclamations without solid evidence. Zambians deserve transparency, accountability, and a commitment to sustainable development that truly benefits the local population, not just the interests of foreign investors.
In conclusion, while the promise of 300,000 jobs and significant economic growth is enticing, the government must resist the urge to embrace this investment without rigorous due diligence. The Zambian people cannot afford to be let down by another unfulfilled pledge or, worse, a well-orchestrated scam. The stakes are too high, and the government must prioritize the country’s long-term interests over short-term headlines.