DEMAND – An Urgent and Absolute Need for an External Audit of the Voters’ Register – ECZ’s target of a 10.5 million Voters Roll, currently a Mathematical Improbability

DEMAND – An Urgent and Absolute Need for an External Audit of the Voters’ Register – ECZ’s target of a 10.5 million Voters Roll, currently a Mathematical Improbability

By Muhabi Lungu

I have been compelled,  once again, to share my private thoughts about the Zambian electoral process. This time, with specific reference to the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) and the Voters Register, as it currently exists; the genuine fears and suspicions of “possible impropriety” are real and justified.

A month and a half ago, it was  reported on Radio Phionex news that the Chief Executive Officer of the ECZ, Mr. Brown Kasaro, had  revealed the intent by the Commission to register an additional 3.5 million voters before the next general elections. Accordingly, the ECZ had  targeted  a voter’s roll of 10.5 million registered voters for the next Presidential and General Elections of 2026.

Obviously, and knowing the previous trends and  figures of the last several elections, this didn’t sound like an accurate possibility. In addition and given our voting age of 18 years as well as considering  the pyramid structure of our population ( *an estimated 60% of our entire  population is bellow the voting  age of 18*), *it therefore, cannot  be possible, to have an eligible voters role  holding  50% of the population* ; highly unlikely to achieve such a target. As a result of this obvious improbability occuring, I quickly dismissed the news item as an honest mistake by either Radio Phionex or the Director at  ECZ; forgot about it and moved on with other matters.

HOWEVER, some two weeks ago,  I  was a receipient of a video in which the Chairman of the Public Service Commission, Dr Choolwe Byani, disputed certain findings of the Census Report 2022 (those relating to “voter numbers in some 15 wards in Southern Province”) and invariably declared the Report illegal and therefore null and void. His subsequent arguments with technocrats of the Report and contrastly, a politely but defiant ( clearly against Dr Bayani’s careless declaration)  Ministerial Statement in Parliament, regarding the authenticity of the Census Report, awakened my earlier suspicions of possible impropriety. I, therefore, decided to have a fresh re-look at our Voters Register; going back all the way to 1991 and up to the present. After a thorough study of the register and doing some numbers crunching, here is what I found:

1. There has never been any time since 1991 at which the percentage of registered voters  has exceeded 42% of the population. In fact, the calculated average percentage of all the nine presidential elections since 1991 is a 34.11% of the population. If you take the average of the last four Presidential elections, (to be more current) the average comes to 37.61%; and the primary reason for this higher number is that a historical 41.8% was registered in 2016. This out-layer year raises some  uncomfortable questions about the 2016 register (subject for  another day)

2. If you look at the specific years of the elections, (self-contained years) you will find that 5 of the 9 electoral years saw a registered voter percentage of below 35%. This is a significant data reference point for consideration towards a realistic projected target.

Here are the specific numbers for each respective year of elections; in 1991, the Zambian population was at 7.5 million and the voters registered was 2.9 million, representing 38.6%;  In 1996, the Population was 8.5 million, while the voters register was 2.2 million (a decline of more than 600,000) and representing 26.4 % of the population; in 2001, the population was 10.1 million, while the register was at 2.6 million, representing 25.6%; in 2006, the population was 11.6 millon, while the register was 3.9 million, representing 33.9%; in 2008, the population was 12.4 million while the register remained at 3.9 million, representing 31.8%.

In the last decade and a half, the National population in  2011 was 13.5 million, while the voters register was at 5.1 million, representing 38.1%; in 2015, the population was 15.4 million while the register was still at 5.1 million, representing 33.3%;  in 2016, the population was 16 million while the register jumped to 6.6 million, and representing 41.8% (the highest single out-layer number since 1991); and lastly in 2021, the population was 18.9 million, while the register was at 7 million, representing 37 %. One can easily see a pattern for our registered voters vis a vis the population size; *NEVER above 42% and mostly below 35%…. NOWHERE near the unprecedented  50%,*  being suggested by the ECZ.

The import of the above figures indicate that at an annual increment in of 3.4%, as the 2022 Census indicates, the projected population of Zambia at end June 2026 will not be more than 22, 048, 040 million people. At the maximum and out-layer 41.8 % of 2016, the voters’ register should not exceed 9.3 million voters.

The fact is that the  most reasonable and probable percentage to use would be 38%. In this regard, the Voters’ Roll should not exceed 8.4 million voters. SO, THE PRIMARY QUESTION TO THE ECZ is:*Where are  they expecting to get the extra 2.1 million voters, in order  for the Commission to reach their announced  target of 10.5 million?** Can we, as Citizens, be provided with this simple answer?… Since, I am not in the habit of claiming infallibility, It is possible that I could just be a very ignorant man who needs to be corrected and put in his place.

However, and in light of the struggle for supremacy,  accuracy and authenticity between differing Government agencies and departments, on the Census Report, as well as  the careless response of the UPND Party to concerns raised by a joint opposition stance, is it not justifiable for Citizens to have a healthy  suspicion of the electoral process? And to doubt, in particular, the announcement by the Chief  Executive Officer at ECZ? 

*Can any reasonable person reject a rationally based request for an EXTERNAL AUDIT of the entire register?*  Is it possible that the government or the ECZ can just remain silent in the face of such potent fears of  possible impropriety? Is this how dismissively arrogant a government can become in a short space of 3 and a half years? How much more arrogant will the UPND government become, if it wins a possibly manipulated election in 2026? 

I urge the public to honestly inquire into the true nature of such a government; to see through the veil and arrive at a fair assessment of their behavior. We, as THE  ZAMBIA WE WANT, communicated  this concern to the Secretary General of the Commonwealth, when we jointly met her with other opposition political parties. We requested that an External Audit be done on the Electoral Register and the electoral process. We requested that it be done, as it was done in Malawi, leading  to the nullification of Professor Mutharika’s victory of May 2019. In the  Zambian case, the much needed  External Audit should be done before the elections of 2026  are held. NOT AFTER. Prevention is better than a Cure. *This will be important in order for all of us to have sufficient Trust and Confidence in the Register* .

In conclusion, I think it only fair, reasonable and humble, if these questions and concerns can be addressed by the ECZ and Government. If all stakeholders can be called and have their fears and suspicions allayed and put to rest. How wonderfully progressive that would be. *It is my HOPE  and PRAYER, for the benefit of the governed, that our national leaders still have a conscience and will do the right thing for our country* . The usual UPND administration silent treatment on pertinent issues raised by the opposition ( on behalf of the people) will not be helpful to our democracy.

MUHABI LUNGU