ECHOES OF THE PAST: UPND’S BORROWING STRATEGY MIRRORS PATRIOTIC FRONT’S FISCAL FAILURES
In light of the recent supplementary budget request by the UPND government to increase the debt ceiling, there are growing concerns that Zambia’s debt accumulation may mirror the rapid increases seen during the Patriotic Front (PF) administration. The PF, which governed from 2011 to 2021, recorded an average annual debt increase of approximately **$2.42 billion**, culminating in a staggering **691%** rise in total public debt over ten years.
DEBT ACCUMULATION UNDER THE PATRIOTIC FRONT
When the PF took office in 2011, Zambia’s public debt was around **$3.5 billion**. By the end of their tenure in 2021, this figure had ballooned to **$27.7 billion**, representing a total increase of **$24.2 billion** over a decade. This rapid escalation in debt was marked by significant borrowing to finance various development projects and manage fiscal deficits.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE UPND GOVERNMENT
Since taking office in August 2021, the UPND inherited a substantial debt burden, and projections indicate that by 2025, total public debt could reach approximately **$36 billion**. The UPND government has proposed an average annual increase in debt of **$2.42 billion**, similar to that of the PF. This trajectory raises concerns about a potential repeat of past fiscal mismanagement.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
– **PF Administration (2011-2021)**:
– **Initial Debt**: $3.5 billion
– **Final Debt**: $27.7 billion
– **Total Increase**: $24.2 billion
– **Average Annual Increase**: $2.42 billion
– **Percentage Increase**: Approximately **691%**
– **UPND Administration (2021-2025)**:
– **Initial Debt**: $27.7 billion
– **Projected Debt by 2025**: $36 billion
– **Total Increase**: $8.3 billion
– **Average Annual Increase**: $2.42 billion
– **Percentage Increase**: Projected at approximately **30%**
IMPLICATIONS OF INCREASED BORROWING
The UPND’s decision to raise the debt ceiling signals a willingness to borrow more extensively, potentially leading to a similar pattern of debt accumulation as seen under the PF. While the government argues that additional borrowing is necessary for development and economic recovery, critics warn that this could exacerbate Zambia’s existing fiscal challenges and hinder long-term sustainability.
CONCLUSION
As Zambia navigates its economic landscape, the parallels between the UPND’s current borrowing strategy and the PF’s historical approach are concerning. With an average annual increase in debt projected to match that of the PF, there is a pressing need for prudent fiscal management to avoid repeating past mistakes and ensure that Zambia’s financial future remains stable and sustainable.