ECONOMIC DECLINE AND POLITICAL UPHEAVAL: LESSONS FROM BOTSWANA FOR ZAMBIA’S 2026 GENERAL ELECTIONS
Botswana’s recent political shift serves as a stark example of how economic challenges can dramatically alter a country’s political landscape, offering important lessons for nations like Zambia as they approach critical elections amid economic turmoil.
BOTSWANA’S ECONOMIC DECLINE AND POLITICAL UPHEAVAL
Botswana, long considered an African success story, has recently experienced a significant economic downturn that culminated in a surprising political transition. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had ruled since independence in 1966, lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections, marking the end of one of Africa’s longest continuous rules by a single party.
ECONOMIC FACTORS BEHIND THE SHIFT
- Diamond Market Contraction: Botswana’s economy, heavily reliant on diamond exports, faced a severe slowdown due to a global diamond market downturn. Diamond exports, which account for nearly 90% of goods exports, declined by a third in 2023[9].
- GDP Growth Deceleration: Economic growth slowed from 5.5% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, falling below the long-run potential growth of 4%.
- Unemployment: The unemployment rate surged to over 27%, with even higher rates among youth.
- Inflation: While inflation had declined to 3% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 6.1% in the same period of 2023, the overall economic situation remained challenging.
- Foreign Exchange Reserves: Despite lower diamond exports, foreign exchange reserves increased in 2023, supported by higher customs union receipts. However, they were estimated at P62 billion in June 2024, a 6.2% decrease from June 2023.
ZAMBIA’S ECONOMIC PREDICAMENT
Zambia is currently facing severe economic challenges that mirror some of Botswana’s recent experiences:
- GDP Growth: Zambia’s economic growth is projected at just 1.2% for 2024, down from an earlier estimate of 2.3%.
- Inflation: The country is experiencing increasing inflation due to currency depreciation, rising food and fuel prices, and hikes in administrative prices.
- Debt Burden: Zambia is grappling with a high public debt, limiting fiscal space and increasing vulnerability to external shocks.
- Unemployment: The unemployment rate in Zambia has surged to nearly 28%, with rates for young people approaching 38%.
- Currency Depreciation: The Zambian Kwacha fell 10.9% against the US dollar between January and August 2024.
LESSONS FOR ZAMBIA’S 2026 GENERAL ELECTIONS
The Botswana case study offers several key lessons for Zambia as it approaches its 2026 elections:
- Economic Performance as a Political Determinant: The BDP’s loss in Botswana demonstrates that even long-standing ruling parties can be ousted if they fail to address economic challenges effectively.
- Importance of Economic Diversification: Botswana’s over-reliance on the diamond sector contributed to its economic vulnerabilities. Zambia, heavily dependent on copper exports, faces similar risks and needs to prioritize economic diversification.
- Youth Unemployment as a Critical Issue: High youth unemployment was a significant factor in Botswana’s political shift. With Zambia facing similar challenges, addressing youth employment could be crucial for political stability.
- Public Perception of Economic Management: The Botswana electorate’s dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of economic challenges played a key role in the election outcome. Zambian politicians will need to present credible economic plans to win voter confidence.
- Impact of Global Economic Trends: Both Botswana and Zambia’s economies are vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations. The ability to navigate these external pressures could be a key factor in the 2026 Zambian elections.
CONCLUSION
The Botswana case demonstrates how economic degradation can lead to significant political change, even in countries with long-standing political stability. As Zambia approaches its 2026 elections, the government and opposition parties alike must recognize the critical importance of addressing economic challenges to maintain political support. The outcome of Zambia’s upcoming election may well hinge on which party can present the most convincing plan for economic recovery and diversification.
Zambian policymakers and political leaders would do well to heed the lessons from Botswana, recognizing that economic performance can be a decisive factor in shaping electoral outcomes. As Zambia grapples with its economic challenges, the ability to offer concrete solutions to issues like unemployment, inflation, and economic diversification may prove crucial in determining the country’s political future.
Sources
[1] IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with … https://www.imf.org/…/pr-24321-botswana-imf-executive…
[2] Botswana Voters Hand Governing Party a Stunning Rebuke https://www.nytimes.com/…/botswana-election-results.html
[3] Botswana Country Report 2024 – BTI Transformation Index https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/BWA
[4] Zambia Economy – October 2024 Update | ZambiaInvest https://www.zambiainvest.com/economy/
[5] [PDF] Monetary Policy Report – August 2024 – Bank of Botswana https://www.bankofbotswana.bw/…/Monetary%20Policy…
[6] [PDF] 2024 Zambia Budget Bulletin Final 12:58.pptx – PwC https://www.pwc.com/…/pwc-zambia-budget-bulletin-2024.pdf
[7] How Masisi’s party misread Botswana mood and lost ‘massively’ https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/…/how-masisi-s-party…
[8] IMF Staff Completes Mission to Zambia https://www.imf.org/…/pr24374-zambia-imf-staff…
[9] Botswana: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff … https://www.elibrary.imf.org/…/286/article-A001-en.xml