REBUTTAL- Urgent and Absolute need for an External Audit of the Voters Register-EZC’s target of a 10.5 Million Voters RolI, currently a Mathematical Improbability
By Muhabi Lungu
Introduction
This is a rebuttal to some comments made in response to an article I wrote less than a week ago, regarding, a request for a comprehensive and independent external audit of the Voter’s Register. I am always grateful and welcome an alternative view point that might sharpen my argument further. Having acknowledged this, let me remind the readers of the title of my article. The heading of the article in question explicitly stated that the ECZ’s target of having a *“voter’s roll of 10.5 million, was currently a mathematical improbability.”* The specific words I used in the title, (voter’s Register, Voter’s Roll, mathematical improbability) were not accidental nor were they frivolous. They were intentionally intended/designed to contextualize the argument that was being made. May I request the reader to keep this in mind as I attempt to *correct* the argument put forward against my observations and data presented in my first article, as I explain further the concerns regarding the Electoral Roll?
The Proposition against My Position
The main arguments, against my propositions of the problem, bases its refutation by pointing to the Revised Census Report of 2022-Vol 2,” which indicates that in 2026, there will be 53.2% or 12,320,386 Zambians who will be “eligible to register, *but some of whom will NOT BE ELIGIBLE TO VOTE* .” Accordingly, only “50.8% or 10,730,174 will be eligible to vote.” Basically, this argument indicates that according to the Census Report, there are in fact more than 10 million eligible voters, and hence, I was wrong and misguided in my request for an external audit.
My Preliminary Answer
Ostensibly, *the Revised Census Report of 2022 is suggesting that the Electoral Roll should contain individuals that are eligible to be on the roll but are not eligible to vote* ; most likely those between the ages of 16 and 17, who are eligible to obtain a National Registration Card (NRC) but have not yet reached the voting age of 18; hoping, of course, that this exercise was regionally balanced throughout the country and all effort was made towards equity and parity.
The above condition means that the Census Report is suggesting to the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) that it should have on its register, an additional 1,590,212 people who are not eligible to vote. I wonder, from where the Census Report is getting this mandate or the legal authority to make such a suggestion to the ECZ? I also wonder as to whether previous Census Reports have made this suggestion? On the face of it, *I think this to be a major anomaly and is probably illegal* .
Nevertheless, the argument against my observation further proceeds as follows, *and I quote* , “I read the write up, up to where it says 60% of the Zambia population is below 18 years. I cross checked with the 2022 census report. The 60% cited in the write up is at variance with the Zambia Statistics Agency which shows 9.97 million as voting age population as at September 8, 2022. In my view, the ECZ target of 10.5 million is attainable given that slightly over two years have passed since the census date” …..This argument appears to support the suggestion of the Census Report that the electoral roll should make an allowance for those between the ages of 15-17… Here is my substantive rebuttal;
My Rebuttal
i. The first point to be made clear is the *undisputable FACT* that there is *NOWHERE* in my first article in which I quoted or made any reference to any figure emanating from the Revised Census Report of 2022. The avoidance of the Revised Census Report was deliberate and was made very clear. It was pointed out that a senior member of the government, Chairman of the Public Service Commission (Dr Choolwe Beyani) had disputed numbers in the said report and had in fact declared the Report “illegal and therefore null and void;” that a disagreement and debate ensued between the technocrats tasked to do the Job (Zambia Statistics Agency), Dr Beyani with his privileged position both in Government and the Party (UPND) and the Minister of Finance (a politician) who promptly gave a ministerial statement ignoring the Chairman of the Public Service Commission and by extension, the President of the Republic, who Dr Beyani was try to leverage upon, in his declaration by indicating that the PRESIDENT had in fact given instructions that the Census Report should not be published. I do not take issue with technocrats at ZAMSTATS, but I do take issue with politician7 (members of the party and its government) attempting to corrupt official data. It is within my right to become doubtful and begin to question the authenticity of that data.
Hence, I had no intention of quoting an openly disputed report, for which none of the questions and concerns raised by the opposition and civil society have been answered to, nor addressed. It would not make any sense for me to validate a process questioned and invalidated by such a high ranking government official who claims possible presidential interference in the creation of an unverifiable government ‘official truth.’
ii. The second point to make is that the readers, attempting to refute my concerns, seem to have mixed up the primary thrust of the argument. Instead, they have picked upon a minor and ancillary one, which was only used to buttress the primary argument. For the avoidance of doubt, the primary argument of the article was not about eligibility. *It was about the Register or the Voters Roll* . I had indicated that Mr. Kasaro (Chief Executive Officer at ECZ) on Radio Phoenix’s ‘Let the People Talk’, had indicated that they (ECZ) had targeted to register an additional 3.5 million people, consequently bringing a total *Voter’s Register* of over 10.5 million people.
Given the historical data I presented in the previous article of the Voters Roll, in the past nine presidential elections and covering a period of 35 years, *there has never been a time in which the voters register contained 100% of the eligible voters; NEVER* . In this particular case of projections for 2026, the ECZ’s target of a 10.5 million *Register* out of 10.7million eligible voters, representing an incredible *98 %* of people going to physically register is truly a remarkable feat. What will have changed in this 10th Presidential electoral cycle to achieve *a jump of some 20 basis points in order to capture an almost 100% of all eligible voter?* I reiterate, given the historical data, provided in the first article (which I recommend for those who did not finish the article to go back and finish) and the target by the ECZ of the voter’s roll, I still firmly hold the view that this is a mathematical *improbability* . Please take note that it was deliberate not to use the word *IMPOSSIBILTY* . This is not a play of words or semantics, but was intended to give and opportunity to the authorities to respond and hopefully provide me with answers that may give me room to amend my firm belief; a fair intellectual gesture. Consideration should also be given to the fact that notation was made, in the previous article, of the percentage obtained for the 2016 register, as compared to the previous seven (7) elections, was designated as an out-layer; a subject for another day, I noted!
iii. My third point is related to the above out-layer designation and how it cumulatively affects the roll for 2021 elections. A particular detractor, on one of the WhatsApp groups takes a derogatory personal tone, referring to my “ChaChaCha type politics” and other supposedly negative insinuations. Fortunately, he points out that in 2021, the register captured 83% of the eligible voters; that, therefore, “ML has got his view of population twisted.” He, (assumption on my part) provides a table in which he shows a population ‘projection’ of *17,885,423* for Zambia in 2021 and a registered voter’s role of 7,023,499. He does not credit the source of his table. However, while I won’t resort to his colorful language, I wish to point out, that according to the Census Report of 2022, the Zambia population as of September 2022 was 19,610,769 people. If you accept that the annual population growth of 3.4%, as indicated by the current Census, the population of Zambia could not have been 17.8 million, but *18,965,927* ; a difference of over 1 million people. If, I take the rounded-off figure, contained in the Ministerial Statement to Parliament, of 19.7 million, the figure of population for 2021 comes to 19.054 million people. Under these conditions the registered voter percentage drops by more than 7%. Can we say that this drop of more than 7% percent to be insignificant in terms of raising concerns? Furthermore, suppose we reject my calculation for 3.4% annual increment, if the Census Report indicates a population of 19.6 million, and if we accept that my detractor’s presented figure is in fact correct, that the population the previous year was 17.88 million, this would mean *an annual increment of almost 10% between 2021 and September 2022* . Can this be conceivably possible? Are we certain that we Zambians are going to accept this type of discrepancies in figures and official government communication? I should hope not.
iv. My third paragraph, of the previous article, which seems to be the primary reason to dismiss my entire article, begins as follows, and I quote….. “Obviously, and knowing the previous trend and figures of the last several elections, this didn’t sound like an accurate possibility. *In addition* and given our voting age of 18 years…” … and it continues. If you go back and read the remaining paragraph of that article, with greater diligence and the paragraph coming after it, you will be left with no other fair choice but to acknowledge the need for the request of an external Audit. It is unfair for one to make a conclusion in paragraph three of an article exceeding 10 such paragraphs. Intellectual inquiry and curiosity should be able to compel the inquisitive mind to go deeper with the hope of fully grasping the alternative view. A comprehensive understanding of the alternative view might be helpful to you, if need be, in your correcting a misplaced proposition by your opponent.
v. The fifth and final point to make is that of the *Request or Demand* for an independent external audit of the register. The original article went further than just providing data for the sake of data provision or for the sake of being disagreeable. I believe that any fair minded individual, *hoping and praying that there are such fair minded persons in the UPND* , would put the national interest of accurate data provision, and a fair electoral process at the forefront of their belief system. So much so, that the raising of these uncomfortable questions should not be regarded as partisan or subversive. *We need this independent external audit, in order for all of us to have Sufficient Trust and Confidence in the Register* . We need answers to be provided by Government on the issues raised by the Opposition and Civil Society in a letter written to Government, dated 13th March 2025, on the Revised Census Report 2022. We all want to be able to have Trust and Confidence in information provide by government agencies, so that we do not have fear in referencing that information; whether this information is about economic data, educational requirements, ethnic demographics, disease burden or the voters register. This is really important for the future development of our country, for The Zambia WE Want.
MUHABI LUNGU
17th March, 2025