Something is not right. Hon Milupi’s announcement that the concession for roads and border points and a bridge will cost $3.7bn simply doesn’t make sense.
By Norbert Mumba
Firstly the so-called Southern African Business Development Forum is just a NGO. Browsing its website, one doesn’t get the impression that it is within their remit to undertake infrastructure projects as the reference to infrastructure, energy etc seems to be in a discussion or facilitation context. I have failed to establish the persona behind it and when one clicks a specific segment on “what we are”, such as infrastructure, all one gets is a picture of a road intersection.
2) it doesn’t end there I also note the average cost per kilometer of the proposed roads flies right in the face of what UPND as a party promised us. Dividing $3.7bn by 2000km gives me a whooping $1.8m/km against the $500,000 UPND referred us when it challenged the Lusaka to Ndola road. In fact given that the proposed concession roads are unlikely to be dual carriage, they will be by far more expensive than the road the condemned.
3. It is inconceivable that this project, whose returns are supposed to be from the roads (presumably toll) as the main infrastructure and not from import duties per se, would be able to recoup in 25yrs for the following reasons; i) you require to raise at least $148m per year or $405,478/day from tolls and duties just to make the $3.7bn. But who will deploy such a colossal amount without profit? If you mark it up at 10% return, interest expected will be way more than what will be invested. ii) obviously the roads will require very good maintenance otherwise at end of concession (25yrs) there will be no roads to talk about. So the collections would have to be very high to the extent that there is nothing in it for the government.
4. The government promised transparency not cosmetic transparency so please publish the full agreement for us to see what is in it for the people. Otherwise this is already a matter for the Anti Corruption Commission. Why would such a mammoth project not be a publicly tendered project? What experience does this Forum, formed a few years ago, have to get a concession that represents over 5000acres of Zambian territory. (to pre-emptive how I arrived at 5000; 2000km x 10m(representing width of roads including shoulders) then converted to acres. This does not include the land area for physical border infrastructure. Hon Milupi owes us an explanation to include who is guaranting this massive undertaking? The so-called Forum doesn’t have assets. Is this in essence another foreign debt by guarantee? If we talk about debt transparency, we can already count that we are already close to an additional $7bn in less than 120 days
NB :Norbert Mumba boasts more than 25 years of senior management experience in Zambia, including 19 years at the Bank of Zambia (BOZ)—a member institution of AFI—where he held numerous positions such as Assistant Director of Regulatory Policy, Licensing and Liquidations, and Director of Bank Supervision. Mr. Mumba has been a member of several technical committees aimed at reforms of the banking sector at national, regional and international levels.