LONG ARTICLE: The UPND’s Dilemma Ahead Of 2026 Elections, Heads Will Roll
……. Mutale Nalumango may be kept to avoid giving someone else as running mate to PHH, fearing that any female to replace NM ahead of the 2026 polls, may be viewed as an “indirect potential” successor to HH, worse a female……..
Political focus has centered on who will be the main opposition challenger or challengers to incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema prior to the presidential and general elections on 13th August, 2026. Constitutionally, President Hichilema is going for his second and last term. Politically, President Hichilema does not want the UPND to end at governing the nation for just ten years, he and others desire that they can go on for as long as possible.
However, there are certain political decisions that must be made before next year’s election and one of which surrounds who will be the running mate to Mr. Hichilema. This is because the person to go side by side to Mr. Hichilema he or she must be a candidate who can be prepared to succeed him in 2031 when he retires. It is evidently clear that Mr. Hichilema is passionate about the UPND as he is to Zambia and he is using the UPND as a tool to develop Zambia the way he envisioned it from the time he took over from late party leader, Anderson Mazoka.
Why Not Mrs. Mutale Nalumango?
Mutale Nalumango is 14th Vice President of Zambia, a position she’s held since August 2021, making her the second woman to hold this significant role in the country after Inonge Wina under the Patriotic Front administration.
Ahead of the 2021 polls, having a female running mate was a competitive strategy not a constitutional requirement, late President Edgar Chagwa Lungu had Professor Nkandu Luo as his running mate, having gone to two elections and winning with Inonge Wina, who gave way to Luo. Therefore, they had to match Luo with a female, hence Nalumango came into the spotlight.
However, as the elections draw near, one can ask, why the UPND with PHH as their front runner maintain Nalumango as running mate?
Our analysis going by her performance as second in command, it is not clear if Nalumango, 70 years, will be favorite to be retained as running mate. From our analysis she has not convinced Mr. Hichilema. On a few occasions she has represented him at major events outside Zambia. Also, retaining Mrs. Nalumango as running mate, has a historical problem with regards to the UPND strongholds. Going that route would be an indication that she will be the sole favorite to take over from Mr. Hichilema ahead of the 2031 elections. The question is, does the UPND general membership agree to be led by a woman?
Information gathered from insiders suggest that the UPND cannot afford to maintain the current top two (HH and MN) for the 2026 elections because it will be risky to have a complete new set of candidates as Presidential and running mate for the 2031 elections. This is why, Nalumango is likely to be sacrificed for someone else, someone more appealing, with a national character, easy to market such a person will be considered for one major reason, to be in line to replace HH come 2031. If the UPND decides to maintain a woman as running mate, then, who stands out among female politicians in the UPND to replace MN.
The working chemistry between HH and MN does not inspire togetherness as it was during the days of the UPND in opposition. Politically, MN was pivotal and instrumental to consolidate what others before her like GBM did to ignite the presence of HH and the UPND in the Northern block.
Also, it must be made clear that embracing gender balance is a good attraction considering that Zambia’s population is female dominated. However, others factors but not limited to these may apply. The age of the running mate, region and sellability, she or he must be a popular candidate across the nation or at least five or more provinces, a scandal-free individual, their political history in the UPND. Does he or she command considerable respect from senior party members?
Who are the potential female Cabinet Ministers?
1. Brenda TambaTamba, 64 years old is Minister of Labour and Social security, she hails from Northwestern province, one of UPND strongholds that can make a good running mate.
2. Doreen Mwamba, 62 years old is Minister in Charge of Community Development, she is from Northern Province, not a UPND stronghold but the region is crucial to elections outcomes. For instance, the likes of GBM, Elvis Nkandu having them on the UPND contributed to increasing popularity of the party in the North region of Zambia. Mwamba is in charge of a critical ministry that oversees a rural vote. When you talk of social cash transfer, the majority of the beneficiaries are in the rural communities. She has performed fairly well.
3. Sylvia Masebo, 59 years old is the most experienced of all the female Cabinet Ministers. She has been around for many years. However, she comes from Lusaka, a complex region which is already under the control of the UPND. Of the five women, Masebo is the most experienced, both politically and government understanding as she has served in government the MMD, PF and UPND administrations. She has wide political eyes.
4. Shealy Mulyata, 64 years is the Lusaka Provincial Minister, could also come into the selection table. Politically, little is known about Mulyata but she managed to convince PHH to appoint her in his cabinet of ministers.
5. Princess Kasune, 49 years old is the current Minister of Justice, the youngest among female Cabinet Ministers, cannot be ruled out from the race. She is Zambia’s first justice Minister. Before her current role, she was the Minister of Central Province from September 25, 2023. Kasune is also a member of the National Assembly, representing Keembe constituency since 2016.
Again based on several interactions within and outside the UPND, the idea of having a female UPND President, late on as Zambian President is not a topic for discussion. There is no chance to give a female to lead the UPND at least for now. That being the case, Nalumango may have kept to avoid giving someone else as running mate to PHH, fearing that any female to replace NM ahead of the 2026 polls, may be viewed as an “indirect potential” successor to HH, worse a female.
In summary, chances of maintaining NM as running mate to President PHH are 50/50 based on the desire by the UPND general membership to have a female UPND President. Also, keeping NM could advantage her to a pole position to become Zambia’s first female President but there is fear that the control of the UPND will move into a foreign region away from the party’s historical stronghold, the Southern Province.
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The Speech Analyst
02.12.2025