Zambia’s GDP should be about $50billion
Amb. Emmanuel Mwamba wrote;
In her submission to a Podcast by the Norwegian-African Business Association (NABA), State House Policy Advisor, Chipo Mwanawasa, stated that Zambia’s GDP had grown from $18billion in 2020 to $29billion in 2024.
She also stated that the total public debt in August 2021,was $26billion.
She failed to mention that this debt now stands at $32billion.
She attempted to attribute the GDP growth to President Hakainde Hichilema’s Government.
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that South Africa will overtake Nigeria and Egypt as Africa’s largest economy in 2024.
Similarly it predicted that Zambia’s GDP will rise from $26billion to $29billion.
The United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) recommends that member states rebase their National Accounts especially GDP, every five years as a way of accounting for prevailing size and structural changes in the economy.
Zambia last did this exercise in 2010.
If the GDP was estimated to be at US $ 26 billion in 2010 since it was last rebased, surely this figure should by now have doubled given the many empirically verifiable economic program and changes that have taken place in the economy.
If we are to follow the UN recommendations, Zambia should have undertaken another GDP benchmarking and rebasing in 2015 or 2016.
Zambia’s GDP should be around $50billion.
The GDP rebasing exercise should enable is critical in the production of a balanced GDP estimate using all the 3 approaches namely; ●Production, ●Income and ●Expenditure ●approaches with reliable value-added estimates by industry, income and expenditure categories.
Government should therefore Commission a genuine rebasing of its GDP.
All in all, rebasing of the GDP will enable government evaluate the performance and contribution of every industry to the national economy.
A good measure of GDP will also enable government to manage revenue collection more effectively by setting realistic revenue targets.
In addition, the government will be in a position to manage debt contraction efficiently without violating the vital condition that compels economic agents to live within their means.
Mwamba would speak anything without substantiating . When he says Zambia’s GDP should be US$50 Billion what facts is he attributing this rise to? In 2010 Zambia’s economy under the MMD Government was on a growth tragectory and when PF took over the economy began to recede especially in the Mining industry. It’s without question that the KCM and Mopani had plummeted rapidly under PF ,BARRICK mine was almost closing down .How canan economy grow in such an environment?
Bwamba in his usual playing the “clever chicken” throwing numbers around stating debt figures that are clearly hogwash! Ati GDP rebasing is recommended by the UNSD every 5 yrs and the last done was in 2010. The pfidiot won’t say why the pfools 10yr tenure this was not done but wants it to be done now. Palast ati GDP now should be 50bn IDIOT!!!