A REVIEW OF PRESIDENT HAKAINDE HICHILEMA’S 1 YEAR IN OFFICE
By Sean Tembo – PeP President
PART 1 – THE ECONOMY
1. The performance of the economy is the most important variable which the electorate consider when assessing the performance of a particular administration. Although the term “economy” is very broad and can be defined using various variables, the Zambian people are particularly concerned with two of those variables, being employment and the cost of living. That means any good performance in an economic variable which neither translates to employment creation nor a reduction in the cost of living, is useless as far as the masses are concerned. For example, Government’s claim to have reduced inflation when the cost of living continues on an upward trajectory unabated, is meaningless in the eyes of the masses.
2. When it comes to employment creation, it is evident that President Hakainde Hichilema’s idea of creating employment is his Government directly hiring the citizens, as opposed to facilitating the growth of the private sector so that it can employ the citizens. Now, a Government can only hire a limited number of citizens whereas the private sector has unlimited potential in terms of employment creation. Therefore, in as much as the President’s efforts to employ 30,000 teachers, 11,000 medical personnel and 5,000 defense personnel can be applauded, it is a drop in the ocean when you consider the fact that we have more than 6,000,000 unemployed youths at the moment. In fact, in a properly functioning economy, the decision to employ additional civil servants should be based on the need for Government to improve service delivery and not just for the sake of creating employment.
3. On the other hand, President Hakainde Hichilema’s decision not to pay suppliers and contractors to Government for the past 12 months, under the pretext that he is still auditing their contracts, has destroyed more than 20,000 small and medium enterprises (SME’s) and resulted in the loss of more than 100,000 jobs. As we speak right now, Zambian SMEs are owed about K48 billion by Government, an increase of about K13 billion in the past one year. So the totality of the current situation is that whereas the President is boasting to have created 46,000 public sector jobs in the past one year, he has killed about 100,000 private sector jobs in the same period due to his Government’s failure to pay SMEs their dues. The net position is therefore negative.
4. When it comes to the cost of living, the President has been contradicting himself on this matter. On one hand, he often points to the fall in inflation as evidence of his Government’s success in reducing the cost of living. However, when he is challenged by the fact that the alleged fall in inflation has not translated into any reduction in the cost of living, he immediately sends his Bank of Zambia (BOZ) officials to explain to the public that a fall in inflation does not mean that prices are not increasing, but merely that they are increasing at a slower pace. So then, if a fall in inflation does not equate to a fall in the cost of living, then why is the President using it to back his claim of having reduced the cost of living? Well, maybe the idea is to confuse the masses, most of whom don’t understand these economic concepts. However, it is difficult to confuse someone that the cost of living has reduced when they still cannot afford a bag of mealie meal. Only God knows how much longer this deceit about the cost of living will be believed by the Zambian people.
5. Apart from the two critical economic issues of lack of employment and the high cost of living, the third key issue which the Zambian people are interested to know is whether the future is bright or bleak. Is the current economic situation going to improve, remain the same or get worse? Well, if Sean Tembo answers this question by giving his opinion, some people may say he is a doomsayer. So let us look around for an objective opinion from an independent entity. Luckily, the World Bank recently pronounced itself on this matter about a month ago. And the World Bank is as independent an entity as they ever come. According to the World Bank in it’s mid-year report for 2022, Zambia will be worse off starting next year going forward, than it has been for the past 11 years. In this regard, the World Bank downgraded Zambia’s economic standing from a lower middle income country, to a lower income country.
6. Naturally, people may ask how the World Bank categorizes the economic standing of different countries including Zambia. Well, it is quite simple really. They look at the existing economic policies of a country and use them to extrapolate whether such policies will result in an increase or reduction in the country’s per capita income, and how significant such a movement is likely to be. Therefore, the recent decision by the World Bank to downgrade Zambia’s economic standing means that the World Bank believes that President Hakainde Hichilema’s economic policies will make the Zambia’s economy worse off going forward, starting from 2023. Given the fact that the World Bank is unlikely to be affiliated with PeP, Socialist Party or PF, and that their opinion is independent and objective, and that they are more knowledgeable in economic management matters than the New Dawn, the best that President Hakainde Hichilema could do is to revise his economic policies.
7. But for President Hakainde Hichilema to revise his current economic policies, he would first have to admit that they are wrong and not suitable for Zambia. But is the President a kind of person who would admit that he was wrong? I personally doubt that very much. So far, instead of self-introspecting after the World Bank downgrade, he has stoically remained adamant that his economic policies are okay. My considered view is that President Hakainde Hichilema would rather continue pursuing wrong economic policies even if he knew that they are wrong, than admit that he was wrong and therefore hurt his pride and ego. In other words, the President’s ego is more important than the suffering of the Zambian people. It is Hakainde first as usual. After all he has 2.8 million Zambians who will support him unconditionally whether he does the right or wrong thing. So why mess with his ego, when he can mess with the Zambian people?
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SET 11.08.2022