Mwaba Mutale


UPND CAN WIN 2021………But hmmm……

Here is my analysis. I will need you to grasp a thought first….PF has a certain percentage of loyal followers among the Zambian population. UNPD has it own too. We cant deny that ethnicity plays a huge part in this selection. Its everywhere. In Kenya most Luo’s support Raila while most Kikuyus are team Kenyatta. Even in America you have the blue states and red states.. So it is with UPND and PF which has staunch followers.. But majority of Zambian say about 80% dont belong to either PF or UPND..Actually many Zamhians hate politics and would rather stay away..that’s why even By elections have very bad voter apathy (turnout). Many see no reason to vote. But loyal members queue up

But a general election is a different story… People participate and chose a candidate even if they dont belong to either grouping. The mistake of the UPND in my analysis has been partly thinking that because Zambia is in a terrible economic situation, therefore majority of the people are on their side! NO BALLY! The people, infact most Zambians are disinterested in politics

Coming to the caption, let me now explain it. Yes UPND can win if we have what is called A PROTEST VOTE.. There are many kinds of vote, for example you have a sympathy vote eg Rupiah Banda in 2008 got a sympathy vote (benefited from Mwanawasa’s death and legacy) Edgar Lungu in 2015 got a sympathy vote from late Sata’s legacy and so on…actually we can say 2015 and 2016 was a sympathy vote for PF. Sata even in his death won them both elections.. 2021 Edgar Lungu is on his own and if we could rate them on performance and without aid of state machinery, I doubt he would go through

Let’s come back to the protest Vote. We have had 2 protest Votes so far. October 31st 1991 that kicked out KK because of food shortages and bad economic conditions and December 27 2001 that boots booted out MMD because mainly of corruption and elected late Anderson Kambela Mazoka as President of Zambia. Though late President Chiluba who had so many skeletons made sure that results were manipulated firstly putting elections deep in rain season so that many places would be totally cut off and inaccessible and making sure those places he seriously manipulated figures and lastly announced on them 10 days later on 7 January after seriously rigging and putting in what he thought was his puppet Levy Mwanawasa who turned against him. In both instances corruption had become so high and poverty of the roof, more a repeatation of what we are seeing today

So 2021 we may see a Protest vote. It might swing in UPND’s favour. Not because they are great at mobilization and have put in a fabulous campaign no. Actually most Zambians are angry at HH and his team for failure to capitalize on the current situation especially the blatant corruption and the failed economic policies of the PF and also failure to reach the grass roots and take have a serious message apart from “Bally will fix it” which is more townish and sounds kwati niba exsay as compared to the slogan “More money in our pockets” that brought in the patriot front

The biggest fear however to UPND benefitting from the protest vote is State Machinery. We all know what this beast can do. Secondly we dont know what the PF is planning but am sure even a grade 1 or kindergarten student can feel something is brewing in the PF camp. Trust me they wont just relinquish power. Also things like online registration or the ECZ app raise serious eyebrows. The app asks for your location. What it means is that ECZ or somebody somewhere tracks your movement and current location. That being said they can know who has been to a polling station and who has voted and not voted. Simply put, somebody somewhere can vote for you!!!!!

Truth be told UPND has done poorly in terms of mobilization, strategy and a solid message. By now UPND should have adopted candidates to allow people to start knowing them also because adoption always leads to division. Those not adopted either become bitter or defect or ditch everything. Enough time was needed for healing and reconciliation. This might affect UPND chances…

However the status quo demands change. We have really lagged back as a Nation and suffering has increased under the poor leadership of hos excellency Edgar Lungu….However many are now questioning the capacity of UPND to rule effectively if they cant even plan and strategise now. How will they handle governing which is far far more serious stressful and complicated if coming up with a strategy is hard for them now?

Anyway whatever the case 2021 promises to be extremely exciting. Grab your popcorn and get ready for serious serious drama like you never seen before. The only worry is it doesn’t take a prophet to see that 2021 will be very violent and bloody. People on both camps UPND and PF are desperate for power. However I put it back to you the Zambian reading this, you have seen what the past 10 years have been under PF. From inheriting a fat coffer our reserves are now empty. We are now in debt of excess of 20 billion dollars. Cost of living has shot off the roof. Ask yourself if you are seriously willing to endure another 5 to 10 years of PF rule or its time to try something else. After all if we honestly analyse things, politicians are all thr same, it’s just like diapers if they over stay they begin to stint and must be changed. Personally I think this diaper is stinting and its time for a fresh one .. After all, nothing much changes, it’s the system that’s rotten and needs a total overhaul. Its just time to change whose in charge of this rotten system and see what he and his team can do for us…

I would have ended this article with PF must go but this is a nuetral article

With Love

Comrade Mwaba Mutale


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