PREDICTING PF’S COLLAPSE
1. There won’t be any elective general assembly this June, and in case they hold one it will be rigged by breaching the rules and disqualifying some candidates.
2. ECL will still have an influence on who becomes PF leader using his money and loyalists (Remember that he appointed the acting president and SG despite retiring from politics). Lungu still believes a PF regime is the only vehicle that can secure his future.
3. The old guards in PF are aware of the despondency among the members who want new faces and will tactically offer positions to potential young leaders, to keep them at bay
4. Northern–eastern hegemony is still a PF agenda, tribalism will still be on the table and cadrism remains a goal, since they have not acknowledged the flaws of article 3 in their constitution.
5. Some contenders will not be in contentions due to Lungu’s preference and the distrust for the inner circle.
– Mwamba has no allies in top PF leadership
– Given Lubinda is an outsider regionally and still viewed as ULP
– Chishimba Kambwili is viewed as antagonistic and disliked by ECL
– Mundubile has no appealing track record
6. The PF chaos is currently being watched by Kalaba, Kabimba, Hamududu, Mmembe and Sean Tembo who hope to benefit by poaching PF disgruntled supporters. Despite PF supporters being in love with their criticism, they are symbiotically connected to the PF corruption syndicate and the other leaders don’t offer the same lure PF corruption does.
7. The general membership’s preference for a new face is hampered by power hunger of the current MCC. They will only settle for a character as corrupt as them, or another puppet who they can control like Lungu.
8. There will be hesitation in choosing a PF leader and this may go beyond 2023, as most of the contenders have garbage with the Zambian people and PF fears the government may target their candidate with corruption litigation.
9. PF is likely to split and the most likely splinter group will be led by CK, who is likely to be disqualified in the upcoming general assembly due to some readmission rules.
10. The second splinter group will be headed by Mwamba who is like to form a party that will struggle to draw any PF members and turn out to be a one man party.
11. Another splinter group will operate in the shadows and will be made up of the current independent MPs and the PF disgruntled MPs.
12. The last splinter group will emerge out of the chaos that arises as the 2026 elections approach, this group is likely to endorse the UPND for patronage purposes.
13. Vulture like Winter Kabimba, Harry Kalaba and Sean Tembo who have an eye for the PF support base will realise that you don’t develop a support base out of the misfortune of others but out of genuine loyalty and love of a support base towards you.
14. An opposition alliance may be likely before the 2026 elections, but the parties will be too incompatible to enter an electoral pact.
15. PF which contrary to popular belief, never won by a landslide in 2011 and later lost both 2015 and 2016 elections will finally have a confirmed death pronouncement in the 2026 election loss.