Zambia as Experimental Lab Rat

6
3294
President Hakainde Hichilema and the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva at State House in Lusaka, Zambia. Photo via President Hichilema’s Facebook Page

By Grieve Chelwa

Zambia’s debt talks have yet again hit a snag. This time around the hold-up is due to disagreements between official creditors, on the one hand, and private creditors on the other, with ordinary Zambians caught in the crossfire.

The basic gist of the latest hold-up is the following: For Zambia’s debt restructuring to succeed (i.e., provide sufficient fiscal room for us to grow ourselves out of the crisis), our creditors (the people we owe money) will have to take on “haircuts”. A haircut in finance is agreeing to accept less money than is owed. For example, if I owe $1 and find myself in a debt crisis and can’t pay back the full amount, my creditor and I can agree that I instead pay them back only 60cents ($0.60). That is, my creditor accepts to take on a loss of 40cents ($0.40) which translates into a 40% haircut.

Why would a creditor accept a haircut in the first place? Well because if they insist on my paying the full $1, they may end-up with nothing because my attempt to pay back the full amount may very well crash my economy to the point where all debt is unsalvageable. Therefore, haircuts, in times of debt distress, are not just important for the borrower but are also crucial for the creditor. In other words, the creditor is actually doing themselves a favour by offering the borrower a haircut.

In the particular case of Zambia, both official and private creditors have, unsurprisingly, agreed to take on haircuts. But the bone of contention is that the Zambian government has implicitly agreed to two different sets of haircuts for the two types of borrowers.

Analysis by Debt Justice, a civil society group, shows that official creditors had earlier agreed to a rather significant haircut of 45% with the Zambian government. On the other hand, the government, in a recently announced deal, seems to have promised private creditors a relatively generous haircut of 27%, which might even be as small as 3% if Zambia’s economy improves in the medium term!

This has naturally infuriated official creditors not least because it’s in violation of the so-called Comparability of Treatment Principle under the G20’s Common Framework. The comparability principle requires that private creditors take-on a haircut that’s at least as great as the one taken on by official creditors (i.e., a haircut of at least 45%).

Why did the Zambian government think it wise to promise different sets of haircuts to different sets of creditors, a situation that would clearly violate comparability of treatment?

Perhaps naïvety about how the real world works on the part of our policymakers? Or incompetency?

Or was this part of some geopolitical gamesmanship? For one thing, the official creditor that stands to lose the most from such a deal is China (holds the bulk of our official credit) while Western-allied private creditors (mostly bondholders) would stand to gain. Zambia, under the presidency of Hakainde Hichilema, seems to have pivoted its foreign policy allegiance to the Western bloc of countries (if in doubt have a look at the country’s most recent voting record in the UN General Assembly on those matters that are of geo-strategic interest to the West).

In any case, whatever the reasons, one thing that is increasingly clear is that Zambia is being used as an experimental lab rat to perfect the imperfect Common Framework.

It was easy to see from the outset that the the Common Framework, in its present form, wouldn’t deliver a speedy resolution to Zambia’s debt woes (I said as much in an appearance on Diamond TV in September of 2022). It was always going to be a drawn out process to use the Common Framework’s one-size-fits-all approach to resolve the specific case of Zambia’s debt given the varying set of creditors all with different preferences, interests and so on.

It is worth keeping in mind that a victory for the Common Framework would be a victory for the Western-dominated Global Financial Architecture — an architecture that periodically faces existential challenges because of its inherent contradictions.

But for the Common Framework to eventually work, it is necessary to pilot it on some backwater country like Zambia. It is merely a footnote that much harm is being inflicted on Zambians in the conduct of this grand experiment.

Grieve Chelwa is an Associate Professor of Political Economy at the Africa Institute and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. https://gchelwa.substack.com/p/a-curtailment-of-central-banks-powershtml

6 COMMENTS

  1. How can naivety be a factor on the part of Zambia when there was advice from the French financial advisory firm Lazard? It’s a matter that the government itself needs to clarify.

    • This government never acknowledges problems. We generally rely on Emmanuel Mwamba to update us. And when he is not summoned by the police, we take it as truth. And most of it is truth, though presented with enhanced drama effects. Nonetheless, the core is often the truth.

      I wonder why Hakainde has kept on the French firm Lazard on our books. I thought he promised during his campaigns to do away with them? Awe sure.

      • Indigo Tryol you must have respect for the Republic President. The President is not your brother iwe PF loser. Too much bitterness in all your comments.

  2. It leaves much to be desired anyway. Why would someone do such a thing, i mean treat parties differently? It is as though someone didnt really do their work properly or there is a reason behind it. Whatever the case may be, all we want is this issue to be dealt with asap so that our economy starts to run.

  3. Źambia is in the troubled waters and the debt distress is negatively affecting ordinary poor Zambians. The PF who contracted the huge unsustainable debt are now celebrating because the New Dawn government is failing to reach an agreement with the creditors both multilateral and private.

    On the other hand, for the PF to have borrowed recklessly they should have had a strategy and plan how to service and payback the loans. We are a country and should not take the situation we have find ourselves lightly as a joke or mere political rhetoric we need to come together to critically address the problem at hand. The PF should also tell the nation how they planned to offset the debts they carelessly accumulated.

    The challenge we have been having in this country even during the other past governments is that when Zambia faces economic challenges the opposition political parties get excited and sees opportunity to mock and undermine the government power. The UPND when in opposition did the same and today they find themselves in a similar situation.

    We should put the country first and put aside all other political differences and collaborate to address the debt distress.

    We have plenty of natural resources yet we are still a poor country what is the problem in the past and now why? The problem is poor leadership and having selfish and greedy leadership who have failed to sacrificed to improve the economy of the country. Politics and holding political office is has become a lucrative career many people go into politics not to serve but to get rich quickly. It is only in politics that things are so easy to come by. Political leadership and office bearers are not strictly scrutinised we elect political office holders anyhow.

  4. I think that it’s mischievous for anyone to mock or blame the UPND government for the debt restructuring snags. We are in this mess because of the reckless borrowing and corruption by PF. They failed to find a plan to pay back the debt. They were actually snubbed by the creditors when they tried to talk to the IMF and the World Bank over this debt.
    Now the UPND government is negotiating positively and progress has been made in spite of the snags. There is no naivety or incompetence here. It’s negotiating skills to get better results that would provide real relief to Zambia.
    So since PF failed to pay back the debt, we should all be sober and support the efforts by this government to sort out the mess. And Iam certain the UPND government will surely deliver on this.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here