Zambia’s economic prospects are very dim-Grieve Chelwa
Zambia earned a whopping $ 6.2 billion from the copper industry in 2023 but very little trickled-down to the communities in the country as the mines are foreign-owned.
Grieve Chelwa,Associate Professor of Political Economy at The African Institute at Tri_Continental in United Arab Emirate, insisted
the economy is pretty depressing and shows a gloom picture in the short-term to medium term.
He said of concern were the poor economic indicators. The inflation rate is in double digits, the economic growth rate of 2% is dismal, and a volatile exchange Rate.
Further, the health epidermics of cholera and other diseases provide negative scenarios.
He also dismissed assertions that economic growth will grow at 4% as nothing tangible has been done to change last year’s growth of 2%.
He said Zambia is required to grow at a minimum of 10% to make meaningful impact on the economy, job, and wealth creation.
He also held reservations with the G20 Framework as an instrument to resolve Zambia’s debt crisis.
He said with the multiplicity of creditors what was required was a bilateral approach to each creditors.
Ba Chelwa, What is the problem. You think the government dont know how bad the economic situation is?
What is your point? Two weeks ago you and your professor at John Hopkins wrote an article stating that the inflation rate that Denny Kalyelye suggested was a lie. In another article you continued to push the narrative. Yet you quote/cite Zamstat as the persons that produce the inflation rate. In his response the Minister of Finace challenged you and your Professor to explain your basis and this vain attempt was done on your blog contradicting yourself.
Here you are again misinforming Zambians.
Investment travels to the places where its offered the best return. Zambia is not the only country with mineral resources, so stop lying to yourself with the all or nothing atitude. The investor has a choice. You can not dictate where theybtaje their money, its a choice. The basic definition of economics (the allocation of scarece resources). Capitalism over time has proved the most efficient means of resources allocation.
Secondly, we bait investors to come here with incentives, instead of Peru, the USA, Congo with other factors that may drive economuc decision. Third we are market driven economy that can not dictate to investors what they do with their money, business is like chess.
This why this government in their own smart way with the governent of Congo DRC are seeking value addition ventures in Zambia a more stable and attractive locale for such businesses to be undertaken than Congo where they have a greater mineral deposit than Zambia. That way jobs, money can be spent here in pricessing the resource than this opportunity cost being lost to another countey. As an economist and scholar, I would have expected to bother to read on the sector and market.
Mining is a unique business just like alot of others. The payback or ROI is not the same as agriculture. The setup cost or capital mobilization give the size of investment is substanial. We are in a post COVID era and the current wars have cause a shift in the global synergy that we had Post 2008 finincial era.
We have a duty as the read to find and give hope. Am not saying stop being critical, am saying if you are going to be raise a point think it through privately, share with your professional peers or those that are part of the Administration for your “thesis” or thoughts to be tested.
When you come out publicly like this, your flaws are naked. I miss Chola, The Zambian economist. In his articulation of issues, he showed that his criticisms were well thought out. No disrespect…but…