Unity, Not Fragmentation: A Strategic Imperative for Zambia’s Opposition Ahead of 2026
As Zambia approaches the 2026 general elections, the debate on opposition strategy has gained renewed urgency. In a recent opinion piece, Henry Chilombo of the Citizens First (CF) party rebutted claims that political ambition undermines Zambia’s opposition, asserting that ambition, when anchored in principle and organization, can drive democratic progress. He defended CF’s withdrawal from the United Kwacha Alliance (UKA), which is part of the United Front (UF), as a strategic move to preserve the party’s identity and vision, arguing that genuine unity must be rooted in shared values and policy alignment rather than convenience.
While the logic of principled independence is understandable, a closer examination of Zambia’s political history suggests that fragmentation has consistently weakened the opposition. Since 1991, divided opposition efforts have often allowed the ruling party to secure victory with a minority share of the vote.
The 2016 election exemplifies this dynamic: President Edgar Lungu won with just 50.35%, while opposition votes were split among multiple candidates. This pattern demonstrates that political ambition alone cannot translate into electoral success without a coordinated strategy.
Chilombo highlights the political journeys of figures like Michael Sata and Hakainde Hichilema as examples of ambition leading to eventual success. However, both leaders achieved their victories by building strong, unified parties. Sata’s long path to power was defined by his leadership of a single party, the Patriotic Front (PF), while Hichilema’s 2021 win was facilitated by the UPND Alliance, which consolidated opposition support. CF’s departure from the UKA, while principled, runs counter to this proven strategy of coalition-building.
Furthermore, in a crowded political landscape where numerous parties compete for attention and votes, the proliferation of presidential candidates dilutes opposition influence.
In the 2021 election, 16 candidates contested the presidency, with most securing less than 1% of the vote. In this context, CF’s decision to withdraw from a coalition contributes to fragmentation, potentially weakening the collective ability to mount a credible challenge to the incumbent.
The credibility of leadership also plays a critical role in rallying support. While Harry Kalaba’s political experience is notable, his movement across parties from resigning from the PF to leading the Democratic Party and now founding CF may raise questions about consistency. Political loyalty and reliability often influence voter confidence, particularly in high-stakes elections.
The lessons of Zambia’s political history are clear: unity is not an optional strategy, it is a prerequisite for meaningful opposition success. As the 2026 elections draw near, CF and other opposition actors face a pivotal choice.
Ambition and principle are important, but without collaboration and strategic alliances, the potential for meaningful electoral impact remains limited. For the opposition to present a credible alternative and achieve sustainable political change, a focus on cohesion and shared purpose must take precedence over fragmentation.
The Struggle Continues
Sensio Banda
Former Member of Parliament
Kasenengwa Constituency
Eastern Province
